USA. MLS

Orlando City vs New York City: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

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Orlando Cityvs

New York City

Our predictionOrlando City to win

Model score: High · 65/100

Score hint: 2-1

The model puts Orlando City at 48%. The model leans toward Orlando City. Confidence: high.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

+Orlando City score more per game (2.0 at home vs 1.0 away).
+Recent form favours Orlando City.
+The head-to-head record favours Orlando City (8-4-3).
+Orlando City creates more chances (14 vs 10 shots per game).
−Orlando City are dealing with notable absentees.
+New York City are dealing with notable absentees.

Win probabilities

1 · Orlando City48%

Draw21%

2 · New York City31%

1 · Orlando CityDraw2 · New York City

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

BTTSNo2.90+8.5%

O/U 2.5Under 2.52.89+7.7%

1X2Orlando City2.26+6.5%

1X2New York City2.81-2.8%

1X2Draw3.90-3.7%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Recent form

Orlando CityDLLDW

New York CityLDLLL

Expected goals

1.89Orlando City

1.21New York City

Over 2.5 goals60%

Both teams to score60%

Team strength rating

Orlando City

New York City

Most likely scorelines

1-110.3%

2-19.7%

1-08.5%

2-08.1%

1-26.2%

3-16.2%

Match DNA

Orlando City New York City

Key points

Orlando City have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
New York City have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
Orlando City have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings.
Orlando City will be without Dorsey G., Jansson, Luis Otavio Costa de Aquino, Rheine, Spicer, Vinicius Nogueira.
New York City will be without Baiera, Farnos, Parks K., Trewin, Morales M.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Orlando City win2.26Model edge (+6.5%)

Total goalsOver 2.51.39Fair

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2	3
0	4	5	3	1
1	9	10	6	2
2	8	10	6	2
3	5	6	4	1
4	2	3	2
5		1

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts Orlando City at 48%. The model puts the draw at 21%. The model puts New York City at 31%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.

The market frames this as a close contest. Orlando City is priced at 2.264. The draw is priced at 3.9. New York City is priced at 2.808.

Orlando City have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings. New York City have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.

Orlando City have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. New York City have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.

Orlando City average 2 goals per game this season. Orlando City average 48% possession. New York City average 1 goals per game this season. New York City average 54% possession.

The model gives 60% for both teams to score. The model gives 60% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, Orlando City or New York City?

Our model rates Orlando City as the most likely outcome at 48% probability.

What's a likely scoreline for Orlando City vs New York City?

A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.

What's the head-to-head record?

In the last 15 meetings: 8 Orlando City wins, 4 draws, 3 New York City wins.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.

See odds at bookmakers

Odds movement

Home 2.26 Draw 3.90 Away 2.81

Match statistics

Player of the matchGriezmannOrlando City9.6

Orlando City

Starting XI

4Brekalo7.2
7Griezmann9.6
9Dike D.6.7
10Ojeda M.9.0
19Taifi6.7
20Velasco7.8
35Gerbet6.6
57Yago7.2
71Crepeau7.8
77Angulo6.3
87Pasalic6.0

Unavailable

Dorsey G. (Questionable)
Jansson (Missing Player)
Luis Otavio Costa de Aquino (Missing Player)
Rheine (Questionable)
Spicer (Missing Player)
Vinicius Nogueira (Questionable)

Coach: Martin Perelman

New York City

Starting XI

6Sands J.7.3
7Mercau8.6
8Perea An.6.8
13Martins T.6.3
17Wolf H.7.2
20Luighi6.2
21O'Neill Ai.6.4
22O'Toole7.5
24Gray T.7.5
26Ojeda6.8
49Freese6.2

Unavailable

Baiera (Missing Player)
Farnos (Missing Player)
Parks K. (Questionable)
Trewin (Questionable)
Morales M (Missing Player)

Coach: Pascal Jansen

League table

USA. MLS

#	Team	GP	W	L	T	G	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	30	16	7	7	63:31	55
2	St. Louis City	30	14	7	9	56:41	51
3	Dallas	30	14	7	9	55:47	51
4	San Jose Earthquakes	30	13	8	9	52:42	48
5	Houston Dynamo	30	13	9	8	41:39	47
6	Los Angeles	31	12	9	10	48:33	46
7	Seattle Sounders	30	11	10	9	39:37	42
8	Los Angeles Galaxy	31	10	11	10	43:52	40
9	Colorado Rapids	30	11	13	6	41:41	39
10	Real Salt Lake	30	10	14	6	45:48	36
11	Portland Timbers	30	9	14	7	51:56	34
12	San Diego	30	8	12	10	53:56	34
13	Minnesota United	30	8	12	10	47:55	34
14	Austin	30	7	13	10	38:56	31
15	Sporting Kansas City	30	6	20	4	36:75	22