USA. MLS

Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

← Match page: score & lineups

Philadelphia Unionvs

New England Revolution

Our predictionPhiladelphia Union to win

Model score: High · 86/100

Score hint: 1-0

The model puts Philadelphia Union at 60%. The model leans toward Philadelphia Union. Confidence: high.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

−Recent form favours New England Revolution.
−The head-to-head record favours New England Revolution (4-2-9).
+Philadelphia Union creates more chances (17 vs 13 shots per game).
+New England Revolution are dealing with notable absentees.

Win probabilities

1 · Philadelphia Union60%

Draw18%

2 · New England Revolution22%

1 · Philadelphia UnionDraw2 · New England Revolution

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

O/U 2.5Under 2.52.85+24.9%

BTTSNo2.50+22.6%

1X2New England Revolution5.20+3.7%

1X2Philadelphia Union1.54-1.7%

1X2Draw4.70-2.1%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Recent form

Philadelphia UnionLWWLL

New England RevolutionDWLLW

Team strength rating

Philadelphia Union

New England Revolution

Expected goals

1.68Philadelphia Union

0.69New England Revolution

Over 2.5 goals42%

Both teams to score40%

Most likely scorelines

1-015.8%

2-013.3%

1-110.8%

0-09.4%

2-19.1%

3-07.4%

Match DNA

Philadelphia Union New England Revolution

Key points

Philadelphia Union have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
New England Revolution have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Philadelphia Union have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
Philadelphia Union will be without Bueno J..
New England Revolution will be without Sands, Campana L., Fofana, Harrison J., Yusuf Al..

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Philadelphia Union win1.54Fair (-1.7%)

Total goalsUnder 2.52.85Fair

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2
0	9	6	2
1	16	11	4
2	13	9	3
3	7	5	2
4	3	2
5	1

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts Philadelphia Union at 60%. The model puts the draw at 18%. The model puts New England Revolution at 22%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.

The market leans toward Philadelphia Union. Philadelphia Union is priced at 1.54. The draw is priced at 4.7. New England Revolution is priced at 5.2.

Philadelphia Union have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. New England Revolution have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.

Philadelphia Union have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. New England Revolution have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.

Philadelphia Union average 1 goals per game this season. Philadelphia Union average 48% possession. New England Revolution average 1 goals per game this season. New England Revolution average 51% possession.

The model gives 40% for both teams to score. The model gives 42% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, Philadelphia Union or New England Revolution?

Our model rates Philadelphia Union as the most likely outcome at 60% probability.

What's a likely scoreline for Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution?

A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.

What's the head-to-head record?

In the last 15 meetings: 4 Philadelphia Union wins, 2 draws, 9 New England Revolution wins.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.

See odds at bookmakers

Match statistics

Player of the matchTurner M.New England Revolution8.0