USA. MLS

New York Red Bulls vs Inter Miami: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

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New York Red Bullsvs

Inter Miami

Our predictionInter Miami to win

Model score: Medium · 54/100

Score hint: 1-2

The model puts Inter Miami at 51%. The model leans toward Inter Miami. Confidence: medium.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

+Recent form favours Inter Miami.
−New York Red Bulls creates more chances (15 vs 13 shots per game).
−The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
−Inter Miami are dealing with notable absentees.

Win probabilities

1 · New York Red Bulls28%

Draw21%

2 · Inter Miami51%

1 · New York Red BullsDraw2 · Inter Miami

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

BTTSNo3.42+2.5%

O/U 2.5Under 2.53.74+2.2%

1X2New York Red Bulls3.62+1.9%

1X2Draw4.38-0.4%

1X2Inter Miami1.82-1.5%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Recent form

New York Red BullsWLLLD

Inter MiamiWLLWW

Expected goals

1.55New York Red Bulls

2.23Inter Miami

Over 2.5 goals73%

Both teams to score70%

Team strength rating

New York Red Bulls

Inter Miami

Most likely scorelines

1-28.8%

1-17.9%

2-26.8%

1-36.5%

2-16.1%

0-25.7%

Match DNA

New York Red Bulls Inter Miami

Key points

New York Red Bulls have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Inter Miami have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
New York Red Bulls have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings.
New York Red Bulls will be without Marcucci.
Inter Miami will be without Allende, Falcon M., Silvetti, Caicedo.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Inter Miami win1.82Fair (-1.5%)

Double chanceInter Miami or draw—Info

Total goalsOver 2.51.25Fair

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	2	5	6	4	2	1
1	4	8	9	7	4	2
2	3	6	7	5	3	1
3	1	3	4	3	1
4		1	1	1
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts New York Red Bulls at 28%. The model puts the draw at 21%. The model puts Inter Miami at 51%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-2.

The market leans toward Inter Miami. New York Red Bulls is priced at 3.62. The draw is priced at 4.38. Inter Miami is priced at 1.816.

New York Red Bulls have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. Inter Miami have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.

New York Red Bulls have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Inter Miami have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.

New York Red Bulls average 2 goals per game this season. New York Red Bulls average 52% possession. Inter Miami average 2 goals per game this season. Inter Miami average 57% possession.

The model gives 70% for both teams to score. The model gives 73% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, New York Red Bulls or Inter Miami?

Our model rates Inter Miami as the most likely outcome at 51% probability.

What's a likely scoreline for New York Red Bulls vs Inter Miami?

A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.

What's the head-to-head record?

In the last 13 meetings: 6 New York Red Bulls wins, 1 draws, 6 Inter Miami wins.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.

See odds at bookmakers

Odds movement

Home 3.62 Draw 4.38 Away 1.82

Match statistics

Player of the matchMessiInter Miami9.2