USA. MLS

Real Salt Lake vs St. Louis City: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

← Match page: score & lineups

Real Salt Lakevs

St. Louis City

Our predictionReal Salt Lake to win

Model score: Medium · 42/100

Score hint: 2-1

The model puts Real Salt Lake at 43%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

+Real Salt Lake score more per game (2.0 at home vs 1.0 away).
−The head-to-head record favours St. Louis City (1-4-3).
+Real Salt Lake creates more chances (16 vs 12 shots per game).
−Real Salt Lake are dealing with notable absentees.
+St. Louis City are dealing with notable absentees.

Win probabilities

1 · Real Salt Lake43%

Draw22%

2 · St. Louis City35%

1 · Real Salt LakeDraw2 · St. Louis City

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

BTTSNo2.66+4.2%

O/U 2.5Under 2.52.56+3.8%

1X2Real Salt Lake2.38+3.1%

1X2St. Louis City2.71-0.3%

1X2Draw3.78-2.9%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Recent form

Real Salt LakeWLDLW

St. Louis CityWDLLL

Expected goals

1.75Real Salt Lake

1.34St. Louis City

Over 2.5 goals60%

Both teams to score61%

Team strength rating

Real Salt Lake

St. Louis City

Most likely scorelines

1-110.7%

2-19.3%

1-08.0%

1-27.2%

2-07.0%

2-26.3%

Match DNA

Real Salt Lake St. Louis City

Key points

Real Salt Lake have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
St. Louis City have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Real Salt Lake have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
Real Salt Lake will be without Arias, Dillon, Eneli, Engel, Glad J., Luna.
St. Louis City will be without Celio Pompeu, Hiebert, Burki R., Matan A..

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Real Salt Lake win2.38Fair (+3.1%)

Double chanceReal Salt Lake or draw—Info

Total goalsOver 2.51.48Fair

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	5	6	4	2
1	8	11	7	3	1
2	7	9	6	3
3	4	5	4	2
4	2	2	2
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts Real Salt Lake at 43%. The model puts the draw at 22%. The model puts St. Louis City at 35%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.

The market frames this as a close contest. Real Salt Lake is priced at 2.38. The draw is priced at 3.78. St. Louis City is priced at 2.715.

Real Salt Lake have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. St. Louis City have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.

Real Salt Lake have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. St. Louis City have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.

Real Salt Lake average 2 goals per game this season. Real Salt Lake average 51% possession. St. Louis City average 1 goals per game this season. St. Louis City average 50% possession.

The model gives 61% for both teams to score. The model gives 60% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, Real Salt Lake or St. Louis City?

Our model rates Real Salt Lake as the most likely outcome at 43% probability.

What's a likely scoreline for Real Salt Lake vs St. Louis City?

A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.

What's the head-to-head record?

In the last 8 meetings: 1 Real Salt Lake wins, 4 draws, 3 St. Louis City wins.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.

See odds at bookmakers

Odds movement

Home 2.38 Draw 3.78 Away 2.71

Match statistics

Player of the matchGuilavoguiReal Salt Lake8.9

Real Salt Lake

Starting XI

1Barboza7.0
3Henry Kob.7.5
6Spierings7.3
8Sanabria8.4
9Guilavogui8.9
11Marchuk6.5
12Lobjanidze6.2
22Solans7.3
26Quinton6.4
44De Fougerolles6.8
92Caliskan N.8.8

Unavailable

Arias (Questionable)
Dillon (Questionable)
Eneli (Questionable)
Engel (Questionable)
Glad J. (Missing Player)
Luna (Missing Player)

Coach: Mastroeni

St. Louis City

Starting XI

6Wallem6.2
8Durkin7.1
9Navarro8.6
14Totland7.0
19Holse6.2
21Polvara7.7
24Edelman6.7
27Fall7.1
32Baumgartl6.7
39Lundt B.6.5
77Jeong6.3

Unavailable

Celio Pompeu (Missing Player)
Hiebert (Questionable)
Burki R. (Questionable)
Matan A. (Questionable)

Coach: Yoann Damet

League table

USA. MLS

#	Team	GP	W	L	T	G	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	30	16	7	7	63:31	55
2	St. Louis City	30	14	7	9	56:41	51
3	Dallas	30	14	7	9	55:47	51
4	San Jose Earthquakes	30	13	8	9	52:42	48
5	Houston Dynamo	30	13	9	8	41:39	47
6	Los Angeles	31	12	9	10	48:33	46
7	Seattle Sounders	30	11	10	9	39:37	42
8	Los Angeles Galaxy	31	10	11	10	43:52	40
9	Colorado Rapids	30	11	13	6	41:41	39
10	Real Salt Lake	30	10	14	6	45:48	36
11	Portland Timbers	30	9	14	7	51:56	34
12	San Diego	30	8	12	10	53:56	34
13	Minnesota United	30	8	12	10	47:55	34
14	Austin	30	7	13	10	38:56	31
15	Sporting Kansas City	30	6	20	4	36:75	22

Promotion - USA. MLS (Play-off: Round of 16) Promotion - USA. MLS (Play-off: Round of 32)

Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.