USA. MLS

Houston Dynamo vs Minnesota United: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

← Match page: score & lineups

Houston Dynamovs

Minnesota United

Our predictionHouston Dynamo to win

Model score: Medium · 37/100

Score hint: 2-1

The model puts Houston Dynamo at 45%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

−Minnesota United score more per game (1.0 at home vs 2.0 away).
−Recent form favours Minnesota United.
+The head-to-head record favours Houston Dynamo (8-4-3).
−Houston Dynamo are dealing with notable absentees.
+Minnesota United are dealing with notable absentees.

Win probabilities

1 · Houston Dynamo45%

Draw22%

2 · Minnesota United33%

1 · Houston DynamoDraw2 · Minnesota United

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

1X2Minnesota United3.30+4.0%

BTTSNo2.39+2.5%

O/U 2.5Under 2.52.31+1.4%

1X2Houston Dynamo2.08-0.9%

O/U 2.5Over 2.51.61-1.4%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Recent form

Houston DynamoLDDLW

Minnesota UnitedDDDWD

Expected goals

1.75Houston Dynamo

1.24Minnesota United

Over 2.5 goals58%

Both teams to score59%

Team strength rating

Houston Dynamo

Minnesota United

Most likely scorelines

1-110.9%

2-19.5%

1-08.8%

2-07.7%

1-26.8%

0-16.2%

Match DNA

Houston Dynamo Minnesota United

Key points

Houston Dynamo have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Minnesota United have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Houston Dynamo have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings.
Houston Dynamo will be without Andrade, Maurer J., Rech.
Minnesota United will be without Smir, Stroud.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Houston Dynamo win2.08Fair (-0.9%)

Double chanceHouston Dynamo or draw—Info

Total goalsOver 2.51.61Fair

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2	3
0	5	6	4	2
1	9	11	7	3
2	8	10	6	2
3	4	6	3	1
4	2	2	2
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts Houston Dynamo at 45%. The model puts the draw at 22%. The model puts Minnesota United at 33%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.

The market leans toward Houston Dynamo. Houston Dynamo is priced at 2.075. The draw is priced at 3.72. Minnesota United is priced at 3.3.

Houston Dynamo have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings. Minnesota United have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.

Houston Dynamo have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Minnesota United have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.

Houston Dynamo average 1 goals per game this season. Houston Dynamo average 46% possession. Minnesota United average 2 goals per game this season. Minnesota United average 45% possession.

The model gives 59% for both teams to score. The model gives 58% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, Houston Dynamo or Minnesota United?

Our model rates Houston Dynamo as the most likely outcome at 45% probability.

What's a likely scoreline for Houston Dynamo vs Minnesota United?

A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.

What's the head-to-head record?

In the last 15 meetings: 8 Houston Dynamo wins, 4 draws, 3 Minnesota United wins.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.

See odds at bookmakers

Match statistics

Player of the matchYeboahMinnesota United8.8

Houston Dynamo

Starting XI

3Carlos Ant.6.5
5Halter6.7
6de Lima A.7.2
9Foster L.6.1
11Ennali5.9
16Herrera He.7.7
19Bogusz M.7.1
20Guilherme Au.7.2
21Negri F.6.1
30Bouzat6.2
31Bond J.7.3

Unavailable

Andrade (Missing Player)
Maurer J. (Questionable)
Rech (Missing Player)

Coach: Olsen Be.

Minnesota United

Starting XI

8Chancalay6.2
9Yeboah8.8
12Callender7.2
13Markanich6.7
16Jackson8.6
20Trapp W.7.7
21Hlongwane B.6.5
23Duggan7.0
28Diaz Je.7.5
30Jin5.9
52Valerius6.6

Unavailable

Smir (Missing Player)
Stroud (Missing Player)

Coach: Cameron Knowles

League table

USA. MLS

#	Team	GP	W	L	T	G	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	30	16	7	7	63:31	55
2	St. Louis City	30	14	7	9	56:41	51
3	Dallas	30	14	7	9	55:47	51
4	San Jose Earthquakes	30	13	8	9	52:42	48
5	Houston Dynamo	30	13	9	8	41:39	47
6	Los Angeles	31	12	9	10	48:33	46
7	Seattle Sounders	30	11	10	9	39:37	42
8	Los Angeles Galaxy	31	10	11	10	43:52	40
9	Colorado Rapids	30	11	13	6	41:41	39
10	Real Salt Lake	30	10	14	6	45:48	36
11	Portland Timbers	30	9	14	7	51:56	34
12	San Diego	30	8	12	10	53:56	34
13	Minnesota United	30	8	12	10	47:55	34
14	Austin	30	7	13	10	38:56	31
15	Sporting Kansas City	30	6	20	4	36:75	22

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Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.