USA. MLS

Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

← Match page: score & lineups

Dallasvs

San Jose Earthquakes

Our predictionDallas to win

Model score: High · 86/100

Score hint: 2-1

The model puts Dallas at 56%. The model leans toward Dallas. Confidence: high.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

+Recent form favours Dallas.
−The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
−Dallas are dealing with notable absentees.
+San Jose Earthquakes are dealing with notable absentees.

Win probabilities

1 · Dallas56%

Draw22%

2 · San Jose Earthquakes22%

1 · DallasDraw2 · San Jose Earthquakes

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

O/U 2.5Over 2.51.44+9.6%

BTTSYes1.44+1.1%

1X2Dallas1.74+0.8%

1X2Draw4.22-0.4%

1X2San Jose Earthquakes4.16-0.4%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Recent form

DallasDDDLD

San Jose EarthquakesDLLLD

Team strength rating

Dallas

San Jose Earthquakes

Expected goals

2.67Dallas

1.21San Jose Earthquakes

Over 2.5 goals75%

Both teams to score65%

Most likely scorelines

2-18.9%

3-17.9%

2-07.3%

1-16.6%

3-06.5%

1-05.5%

Match DNA

Dallas San Jose Earthquakes

Key points

Dallas have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
San Jose Earthquakes have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
Dallas have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
Dallas will be without Farrington, Geovane, Anderson Ju., Ferreyra, Sarver.
San Jose Earthquakes will be without Adimabua, Judd P., Kikanovic, Skahan, Tsakiris, Gonzalez Jon., Jones, Johnson.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Dallas win1.74Fair (+0.8%)

Total goalsOver 2.51.44Fair

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2	3
0	2	2	2
1	5	7	4	2
2	7	9	5	2
3	7	8	5	2
4	4	5	3	1
5	2	3	2

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts Dallas at 56%. The model puts the draw at 22%. The model puts San Jose Earthquakes at 22%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.

The market leans toward Dallas. Dallas is priced at 1.735. The draw is priced at 4.22. San Jose Earthquakes is priced at 4.16.

Dallas have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. San Jose Earthquakes have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 8 of their head-to-head meetings.

Dallas have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. San Jose Earthquakes have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.

Dallas average 2 goals per game this season. Dallas average 43% possession. San Jose Earthquakes average 2 goals per game this season. San Jose Earthquakes average 46% possession.

The model gives 65% for both teams to score. The model gives 75% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, Dallas or San Jose Earthquakes?

Our model rates Dallas as the most likely outcome at 56% probability.

What's a likely scoreline for Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes?

A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.

What's the head-to-head record?

In the last 15 meetings: 4 Dallas wins, 8 draws, 3 San Jose Earthquakes wins.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.

See odds at bookmakers

Match statistics

Player of the matchCappis C.Dallas7.5

Dallas

Starting XI

3Urhoghide7.2
6Binyamin Be.6.9
9Musa P.6.7
10Moreno6.9
12Cappis C.7.5
17Ramiro Ben.7.1
18Moore Sh.6.9
21Valiente J.6.4
25Ibeagha S.6.6
42Daniel6.1
77Kamungo6.1

Unavailable

Farrington (Questionable)
Geovane (Questionable)
Anderson Ju. (Questionable)
Ferreyra (Questionable)
Sarver (Missing Player)

Coach: Eric Quill

San Jose Earthquakes

Starting XI

1Gunn A.6.5
2Ricketts7.5
3Marie P.6.3
4Romney6.4
5Munie6.4
7Bouda6.3
11Werner6.2
14Vieira R6.7
18Roberts6.7
23Lowen6.7
34Leroux B.7.4

Unavailable

Adimabua (Missing Player)
Judd P. (Missing Player)
Kikanovic (Questionable)
Skahan (Questionable)
Tsakiris (Questionable)
Gonzalez Jon. (Questionable)
Jones (Missing Player)
Johnson (Questionable)

Coach: Bruce Arena

League table

USA. MLS

#	Team	GP	W	L	T	G	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	30	16	7	7	63:31	55
2	St. Louis City	30	14	7	9	56:41	51
3	Dallas	30	14	7	9	55:47	51
4	San Jose Earthquakes	30	13	8	9	52:42	48
5	Houston Dynamo	30	13	9	8	41:39	47
6	Los Angeles	31	12	9	10	48:33	46
7	Seattle Sounders	30	11	10	9	39:37	42
8	Los Angeles Galaxy	31	10	11	10	43:52	40
9	Colorado Rapids	30	11	13	6	41:41	39
10	Real Salt Lake	30	10	14	6	45:48	36
11	Portland Timbers	30	9	14	7	51:56	34
12	San Diego	30	8	12	10	53:56	34
13	Minnesota United	30	8	12	10	47:55	34
14	Austin	30	7	13	10	38:56	31
15	Sporting Kansas City	30	6	20	4	36:75	22

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Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.