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Portland Timbers vs Charlotte: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

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Portland Timbersvs

Charlotte

Our predictionPortland Timbers to win

Model score: High · 79/100

Score hint: 2-1

The model puts Portland Timbers at 52%. The model leans toward Portland Timbers. Confidence: high.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

+Portland Timbers score more per game (2.0 at home vs 1.0 away).
+Portland Timbers creates more chances (13 vs 9 shots per game).
−Portland Timbers are dealing with notable absentees.
+Charlotte are dealing with notable absentees.
+Portland Timbers controls more of the ball (52% vs 45%).

Win probabilities

1 · Portland Timbers52%

Draw21%

2 · Charlotte27%

1 · Portland TimbersDraw2 · Charlotte

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

BTTSNo3.10+12.3%

O/U 2.5Under 2.53.10+9.6%

1X2Portland Timbers1.98+4.1%

1X2Charlotte3.26-1.7%

1X2Draw4.12-2.4%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Team strength rating

Portland Timbers

Charlotte

Expected goals

2.01Portland Timbers

1.10Charlotte

Over 2.5 goals60%

Both teams to score58%

Recent form

Portland TimbersDLLWW

CharlotteDLDLW

Most likely scorelines

2-19.9%

1-19.9%

2-09.0%

1-08.9%

3-16.6%

3-06.0%

Match DNA

Portland Timbers Charlotte

Key points

Portland Timbers have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Charlotte have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Portland Timbers have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
Portland Timbers will be without Bonetig, Bae, McGraw, Sulte H., Surman, Alves Santos, Mosquera.
Charlotte will be without John, Berchimas, Goodwin, Doucoure M..

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Portland Timbers win1.98Model edge (+4.1%)

Total goalsOver 2.51.34Fair

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2	3
0	4	5	3
1	9	10	5	2
2	9	10	5	2
3	6	7	4	1
4	3	3	2
5	1	1

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts Portland Timbers at 52%. The model puts the draw at 21%. The model puts Charlotte at 27%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.

The market leans toward Portland Timbers. Portland Timbers is priced at 1.98. The draw is priced at 4.12. Charlotte is priced at 3.26.

Portland Timbers have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.

Portland Timbers have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Charlotte have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.

Portland Timbers average 2 goals per game this season. Portland Timbers average 52% possession. Charlotte average 1 goals per game this season. Charlotte average 45% possession.

The model gives 58% for both teams to score. The model gives 60% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, Portland Timbers or Charlotte?

Our model rates Portland Timbers as the most likely outcome at 52% probability.

What's a likely scoreline for Portland Timbers vs Charlotte?

A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.

What's the head-to-head record?

In the last 2 meetings: 2 Portland Timbers wins, 0 draws, 0 Charlotte wins.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.

See odds at bookmakers

Match statistics

Player of the matchMarkovicCharlotte7.7