Paris vs AS Monaco: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Parisvs
AS MonacoThe model puts Paris at 43%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours Paris (2-1-0).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Match DNA
Key points
- Paris have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- AS Monaco have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Paris have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Paris is priced at 2.3.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 11 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Paris at 43%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts AS Monaco at 32%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Paris is priced at 2.3. The draw is priced at 3.66. AS Monaco is priced at 2.896.
Paris have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Paris have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. AS Monaco have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
Paris average 2 goals per game this season. Paris average 50% possession. AS Monaco average 1 goals per game this season. AS Monaco average 45% possession.
The model gives 58% for both teams to score. The model gives 56% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Paris or AS Monaco?
Our model rates Paris as the most likely outcome at 43% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Paris vs AS Monaco?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 3 meetings: 2 Paris wins, 1 draws, 0 AS Monaco wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
France. Ligue 1| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lyon | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13:5 | 14 |
| 2 |  Paris Saint-Germain | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14:9 | 14 |
| 3 | Paris | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 12:7 | 14 |
| 4 |  Lille OSC | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10:5 | 14 |
| 5 | AS Monaco | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10:6 | 14 |
| 6 |  Stade Rennais | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 15:14 | 13 |
| 7 |  Lorient | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7:6 | 11 |
| 8 |  RC Lens | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 14:11 | 10 |
| 9 |  Olympique de Marseille | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 14:10 | 9 |
| 10 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 13:10 | 9 |
| 11 |  Toulouse | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 12:11 | 9 |
| 12 |  Auxerre | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 11:17 | 9 |
| 13 |  Nice | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 6:9 | 8 |
| 14 |  Strasbourg | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 12:15 | 7 |
| 15 |  Angers SCO | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 9:15 | 7 |
| 16 |  Le Mans | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10:15 | 6 |
| 17 |  Troyes AC | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5:16 | 4 |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 7 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 5:11 | 2 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.