Lorient vs Stade Brestois 29: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Lorientvs
Stade Brestois 29The model puts Lorient at 38%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Lorient.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Lorient have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Stade Brestois 29 have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Lorient have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Lorient is priced at 2.635.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 2 | |
| 3 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Lorient at 38%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Stade Brestois 29 at 35%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Lorient is priced at 2.635. The draw is priced at 3.46. Stade Brestois 29 is priced at 2.595.
Lorient have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. Stade Brestois 29 have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Lorient have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Stade Brestois 29 have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Lorient average 2 goals per game this season. Lorient average 54% possession. Stade Brestois 29 average 2 goals per game this season. Stade Brestois 29 average 47% possession.
The model gives 70% for both teams to score. The model gives 71% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Lorient or Stade Brestois 29?
Our model rates Lorient as the most likely outcome at 38% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Lorient vs Stade Brestois 29?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 6 Lorient wins, 3 draws, 6 Stade Brestois 29 wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
France. Ligue 1| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lyon | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13:5 | 14 |
| 2 |  Paris Saint-Germain | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14:9 | 14 |
| 3 |  Paris | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 12:7 | 14 |
| 4 |  Lille OSC | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10:5 | 14 |
| 5 |  AS Monaco | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10:6 | 14 |
| 6 |  Stade Rennais | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 15:14 | 13 |
| 7 | Lorient | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7:6 | 11 |
| 8 |  RC Lens | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 14:11 | 10 |
| 9 |  Olympique de Marseille | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 14:10 | 9 |
| 10 | Stade Brestois 29 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 13:10 | 9 |
| 11 |  Toulouse | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 12:11 | 9 |
| 12 |  Auxerre | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 11:17 | 9 |
| 13 |  Nice | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 6:9 | 8 |
| 14 |  Strasbourg | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 12:15 | 7 |
| 15 |  Angers SCO | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 9:15 | 7 |
| 16 |  Le Mans | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10:15 | 6 |
| 17 |  Troyes AC | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5:16 | 4 |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 7 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 5:11 | 2 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.