Parma vs Udinese Calcio: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Parmavs
Udinese CalcioThe model puts Udinese Calcio at 37%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Parma.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Parma have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Udinese Calcio have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Parma have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Udinese Calcio is priced at 2.405.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 5 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Parma at 34%. The model puts the draw at 29%. The model puts Udinese Calcio at 37%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-2.
The market frames this as a close contest. Parma is priced at 3.02. The draw is priced at 3.26. Udinese Calcio is priced at 2.405.
Parma have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. Udinese Calcio have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Parma have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Udinese Calcio have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Parma average 1 goals per game this season. Parma average 47% possession. Udinese Calcio average 3 goals per game this season. Udinese Calcio average 41% possession.
The model gives 70% for both teams to score. The model gives 71% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Parma or Udinese Calcio?
Our model rates Udinese Calcio as the most likely outcome at 37% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Parma vs Udinese Calcio?
A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 7 Parma wins, 2 draws, 6 Udinese Calcio wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
Italy. Serie A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Internazionale Milano | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 21:9 | 19 |
| 2 |  Roma | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 16:3 | 17 |
| 3 |  Lazio | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 11:4 | 16 |
| 4 |  Milan | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 14:7 | 15 |
| 5 |  Como | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 12:7 | 14 |
| 6 |  Cagliari Calcio | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6:3 | 13 |
| 7 |  Frosinone Calcio | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13:9 | 13 |
| 8 |  Juventus | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9:5 | 11 |
| 9 |  Napoli | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 10:7 | 10 |
| 10 |  Atalanta | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 10:11 | 9 |
| 11 |  Lecce | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 9:12 | 9 |
| 12 |  Sassuolo Calcio | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 12:14 | 8 |
| 13 |  Torino | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 7:9 | 7 |
| 14 |  Bologna 1909 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 6:10 | 5 |
| 15 |  Monza 1912 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 9:15 | 4 |
| 16 | Parma | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4:10 | 4 |
| 17 | Udinese Calcio | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 9:16 | 4 |
| 18 |  Genoa | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5:13 | 4 |
| 19 |  Fiorentina | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 8:17 | 4 |
| 20 |  Unione Venezia | 7 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 6:16 | 3 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.