Roma vs Cagliari Calcio: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Romavs
Cagliari CalcioThe model puts Roma at 72%. The model leans toward Roma. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours Roma (9-4-2).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Roma have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Cagliari Calcio have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Roma have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Roma is priced at 1.345.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | |||||
| 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 7 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 9 | 7 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 9 | 7 | 3 | |||
| 5 | 6 | 5 | 2 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Roma at 72%. The model puts the draw at 18%. The model puts Cagliari Calcio at 10%. The model's most likely scoreline is 3-0.
The market leans toward Roma. Roma is priced at 1.345. The draw is priced at 5. Cagliari Calcio is priced at 9.
Roma have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings. Cagliari Calcio have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
Roma have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Cagliari Calcio have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
Roma average 3 goals per game this season. Roma average 64% possession. Cagliari Calcio average 2 goals per game this season. Cagliari Calcio average 45% possession.
The model gives 54% for both teams to score. The model gives 83% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Roma or Cagliari Calcio?
Our model rates Roma as the most likely outcome at 72% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Roma vs Cagliari Calcio?
A scoreline around 3-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 9 Roma wins, 4 draws, 2 Cagliari Calcio wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
Italy. Serie A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Internazionale Milano | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 21:9 | 19 |
| 2 | Roma | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 16:3 | 17 |
| 3 |  Lazio | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 11:4 | 16 |
| 4 |  Milan | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 14:7 | 15 |
| 5 |  Como | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 12:7 | 14 |
| 6 | Cagliari Calcio | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6:3 | 13 |
| 7 |  Frosinone Calcio | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13:9 | 13 |
| 8 |  Juventus | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9:5 | 11 |
| 9 |  Napoli | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 10:7 | 10 |
| 10 |  Atalanta | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 10:11 | 9 |
| 11 |  Lecce | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 9:12 | 9 |
| 12 |  Sassuolo Calcio | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 12:14 | 8 |
| 13 |  Torino | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 7:9 | 7 |
| 14 |  Bologna 1909 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 6:10 | 5 |
| 15 |  Monza 1912 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 9:15 | 4 |
| 16 |  Parma | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4:10 | 4 |
| 17 |  Udinese Calcio | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 9:16 | 4 |
| 18 |  Genoa | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5:13 | 4 |
| 19 |  Fiorentina | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 8:17 | 4 |
| 20 |  Unione Venezia | 7 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 6:16 | 3 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.