Fiorentina vs Atalanta: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Fiorentinavs
AtalantaThe model puts Fiorentina at 41%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Fiorentina have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Atalanta have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Fiorentina have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Fiorentina is priced at 2.312.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 14 | 13 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Fiorentina at 41%. The model puts the draw at 28%. The model puts Atalanta at 31%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Fiorentina is priced at 2.312. The draw is priced at 3.54. Atalanta is priced at 2.945.
Fiorentina have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. Atalanta have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Fiorentina have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Atalanta have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Fiorentina average 1 goals per game this season. Fiorentina average 48% possession. Atalanta average 1 goals per game this season. Atalanta average 34% possession.
The model gives 43% for both teams to score. The model gives 37% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Fiorentina or Atalanta?
Our model rates Fiorentina as the most likely outcome at 41% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Fiorentina vs Atalanta?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 7 Fiorentina wins, 2 draws, 6 Atalanta wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
League table
Italy. Serie A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Internazionale Milano | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 21:9 | 19 |
| 2 |  Lazio | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 14:4 | 19 |
| 3 |  Roma | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 16:3 | 17 |
| 4 |  Milan | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 14:7 | 15 |
| 5 |  Como | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 12:7 | 14 |
| 6 |  Frosinone Calcio | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13:9 | 13 |
| 7 |  Cagliari Calcio | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 6:7 | 13 |
| 8 |  Juventus | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9:8 | 11 |
| 9 |  Napoli | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 10:7 | 10 |
| 10 |  Torino | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 10:9 | 10 |
| 11 | Atalanta | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 10:11 | 9 |
| 12 |  Lecce | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 9:12 | 9 |
| 13 |  Sassuolo Calcio | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 12:14 | 8 |
| 14 |  Monza 1912 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 13:15 | 7 |
| 15 |  Bologna 1909 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 6:10 | 5 |
| 16 |  Udinese Calcio | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 9:16 | 4 |
| 17 |  Genoa | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5:13 | 4 |
| 18 | Fiorentina | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 8:17 | 4 |
| 19 |  Parma | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 4:13 | 4 |
| 20 |  Unione Venezia | 7 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 6:16 | 3 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.