Elversberg vs 1. FSV Mainz 05: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Elversbergvs
1. FSV Mainz 05The model puts 1. FSV Mainz 05 at 48%. The model leans toward 1. FSV Mainz 05. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours 1. FSV Mainz 05.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Elversberg have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 is priced at 2.05.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Elversberg at 29%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts 1. FSV Mainz 05 at 48%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward 1. FSV Mainz 05. Elversberg is priced at 3.22. The draw is priced at 3.92. 1. FSV Mainz 05 is priced at 2.05.
1. FSV Mainz 05 have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
Elversberg have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. 1. FSV Mainz 05 have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Elversberg or 1. FSV Mainz 05?
Our model rates 1. FSV Mainz 05 as the most likely outcome at 48% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Elversberg vs 1. FSV Mainz 05?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 2 meetings: 0 Elversberg wins, 0 draws, 2 1. FSV Mainz 05 wins.
League table
Germany. Bundesliga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern Munich | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 22:5 | 14 |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 11:4 | 14 |
| 3 |  Freiburg | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 15:6 | 13 |
| 4 |  Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 16:9 | 13 |
| 5 | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 14:10 | 10 |
| 6 | Elversberg | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12:11 | 10 |
| 7 |  RasenBallsport Leipzig | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 16:11 | 9 |
| 8 |  Werder Bremen | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 12:12 | 9 |
| 9 |  Hamburger | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6:15 | 9 |
| 10 |  Augsburg | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 16:12 | 8 |
| 11 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10:16 | 8 |
| 12 |  1. Koln | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8:11 | 7 |
| 13 |  VfB Stuttgart | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8:10 | 6 |
| 14 |  TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 11:14 | 6 |
| 15 |  Schalke 04 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4:7 | 5 |
| 16 |  Paderborn 07 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5:9 | 5 |
| 17 |  Union Berlin | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5:17 | 5 |
| 18 |  Borussia Monchengladbach | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 8:20 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.