Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Bayer 04 Leverkusenvs
VfB StuttgartThe model puts Bayer 04 Leverkusen at 51%. The model leans toward Bayer 04 Leverkusen. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours VfB Stuttgart.
- −The head-to-head record favours VfB Stuttgart (2-5-8).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- VfB Stuttgart have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen is priced at 1.744.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Bayer 04 Leverkusen at 51%. The model puts the draw at 20%. The model puts VfB Stuttgart at 29%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Bayer 04 Leverkusen. Bayer 04 Leverkusen is priced at 1.744. The draw is priced at 4.44. VfB Stuttgart is priced at 3.92.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. VfB Stuttgart have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 5 of their head-to-head meetings.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. VfB Stuttgart have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 50% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Bayer 04 Leverkusen or VfB Stuttgart?
Our model rates Bayer 04 Leverkusen as the most likely outcome at 51% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 2 Bayer 04 Leverkusen wins, 5 draws, 8 VfB Stuttgart wins.
League table
Germany. Bundesliga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern Munich | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 22:5 | 14 |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 11:4 | 14 |
| 3 |  Freiburg | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 15:6 | 13 |
| 4 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 16:9 | 13 |
| 5 |  1. FSV Mainz 05 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 14:10 | 10 |
| 6 |  Elversberg | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12:11 | 10 |
| 7 |  RasenBallsport Leipzig | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 16:11 | 9 |
| 8 |  Werder Bremen | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 12:12 | 9 |
| 9 |  Hamburger | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6:15 | 9 |
| 10 |  Augsburg | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 16:12 | 8 |
| 11 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10:16 | 8 |
| 12 |  1. Koln | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8:11 | 7 |
| 13 | VfB Stuttgart | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8:10 | 6 |
| 14 |  TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 11:14 | 6 |
| 15 |  Schalke 04 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4:7 | 5 |
| 16 |  Paderborn 07 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5:9 | 5 |
| 17 |  Union Berlin | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5:17 | 5 |
| 18 |  Borussia Monchengladbach | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 8:20 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.