Werder Bremen vs TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Werder Bremenvs
TSG 1899 HoffenheimThe model puts TSG 1899 Hoffenheim at 42%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours Werder Bremen (10-2-3).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Werder Bremen have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Werder Bremen have won 10 of the head-to-head meetings.
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim is priced at 2.15.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Werder Bremen at 35%. The model puts the draw at 22%. The model puts TSG 1899 Hoffenheim at 42%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Werder Bremen is priced at 2.93. The draw is priced at 4.06. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim is priced at 2.15.
Werder Bremen have won 10 of the head-to-head meetings. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Werder Bremen have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Werder Bremen or TSG 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our model rates TSG 1899 Hoffenheim as the most likely outcome at 42% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Werder Bremen vs TSG 1899 Hoffenheim?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 10 Werder Bremen wins, 2 draws, 3 TSG 1899 Hoffenheim wins.
League table
Germany. Bundesliga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern Munich | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 22:5 | 14 |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 11:4 | 14 |
| 3 |  Freiburg | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 15:6 | 13 |
| 4 |  Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 16:9 | 13 |
| 5 |  1. FSV Mainz 05 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 14:10 | 10 |
| 6 |  Elversberg | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12:11 | 10 |
| 7 |  RasenBallsport Leipzig | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 16:11 | 9 |
| 8 | Werder Bremen | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 12:12 | 9 |
| 9 |  Hamburger | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6:15 | 9 |
| 10 |  Augsburg | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 16:12 | 8 |
| 11 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10:16 | 8 |
| 12 |  1. Koln | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8:11 | 7 |
| 13 |  VfB Stuttgart | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8:10 | 6 |
| 14 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 11:14 | 6 |
| 15 |  Schalke 04 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4:7 | 5 |
| 16 |  Paderborn 07 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5:9 | 5 |
| 17 |  Union Berlin | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5:17 | 5 |
| 18 |  Borussia Monchengladbach | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 8:20 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.