Union Berlin vs 1. Koln: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Union Berlinvs
1. KolnThe model puts Union Berlin at 43%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours Union Berlin (9-4-2).
- +Recent form favours Union Berlin.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Union Berlin have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- 1. Koln have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Union Berlin have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Union Berlin is priced at 2.488.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Union Berlin at 43%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts 1. Koln at 34%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Union Berlin is priced at 2.488. The draw is priced at 3.7. 1. Koln is priced at 2.625.
Union Berlin have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings. 1. Koln have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
Union Berlin have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. 1. Koln have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Union Berlin or 1. Koln?
Our model rates Union Berlin as the most likely outcome at 43% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs 1. Koln?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 9 Union Berlin wins, 4 draws, 2 1. Koln wins.
League table
Germany. Bundesliga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern Munich | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 22:5 | 14 |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 11:4 | 14 |
| 3 |  Freiburg | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 15:6 | 13 |
| 4 |  Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 16:9 | 13 |
| 5 |  1. FSV Mainz 05 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 14:10 | 10 |
| 6 |  Elversberg | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12:11 | 10 |
| 7 |  RasenBallsport Leipzig | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 16:11 | 9 |
| 8 |  Werder Bremen | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 12:12 | 9 |
| 9 |  Hamburger | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6:15 | 9 |
| 10 |  Augsburg | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 16:12 | 8 |
| 11 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10:16 | 8 |
| 12 | 1. Koln | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8:11 | 7 |
| 13 |  VfB Stuttgart | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8:10 | 6 |
| 14 |  TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 11:14 | 6 |
| 15 |  Schalke 04 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4:7 | 5 |
| 16 |  Paderborn 07 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5:9 | 5 |
| 17 | Union Berlin | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5:17 | 5 |
| 18 |  Borussia Monchengladbach | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 8:20 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.