USA. MLS

Columbus Crew vs Toronto: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

← Match page: score & lineups

Columbus Crewvs

Toronto

Our predictionColumbus Crew to win

Model score: High · 86/100

Score hint: 1-0

The model puts Columbus Crew at 59%. The model leans toward Columbus Crew. Confidence: high.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

−The head-to-head record favours Toronto (4-4-7).
+Columbus Crew controls more of the ball (58% vs 48%).
−Columbus Crew are dealing with notable absentees.
+Toronto are dealing with notable absentees.

Win probabilities

1 · Columbus Crew59%

Draw19%

2 · Toronto22%

1 · Columbus CrewDraw2 · Toronto

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

O/U 2.5Under 2.52.67+22.8%

BTTSNo2.47+21.9%

1X2Toronto4.88+2.3%

1X2Columbus Crew1.59-0.8%

1X2Draw4.54-1.5%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Recent form

Columbus CrewWDLLL

TorontoWWLLL

Team strength rating

Columbus Crew

Toronto

Expected goals

1.67Columbus Crew

0.69Toronto

Over 2.5 goals42%

Both teams to score41%

Most likely scorelines

1-015.7%

2-013.1%

1-110.9%

0-09.4%

2-19.1%

3-07.3%

Match DNA

Columbus Crew Toronto

Key points

Columbus Crew have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Toronto have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Columbus Crew have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
Columbus Crew will be without Ali A., Habroune, Camacho R..
Toronto will be without Franklin Ko., Palacio, Zimmerman.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Columbus Crew win1.59Fair (-0.8%)

Total goalsUnder 2.52.67Fair

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2
0	9	7	2
1	16	11	4
2	13	9	3
3	7	5	2
4	3	2
5	1

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts Columbus Crew at 59%. The model puts the draw at 19%. The model puts Toronto at 22%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.

The market leans toward Columbus Crew. Columbus Crew is priced at 1.59. The draw is priced at 4.54. Toronto is priced at 4.88.

Columbus Crew have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Toronto have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.

Columbus Crew have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Toronto have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Toronto are on 2 wins in a row.

Columbus Crew average 1 goals per game this season. Columbus Crew average 58% possession. Toronto average 1 goals per game this season. Toronto average 48% possession.

The model gives 41% for both teams to score. The model gives 42% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, Columbus Crew or Toronto?

Our model rates Columbus Crew as the most likely outcome at 59% probability.

What's a likely scoreline for Columbus Crew vs Toronto?

A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.

What's the head-to-head record?

In the last 15 meetings: 4 Columbus Crew wins, 4 draws, 7 Toronto wins.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.

See odds at bookmakers

Match statistics

Player of the matchSchulteColumbus Crew8.6

Columbus Crew

Starting XI

7Chambost D.7.7
8Rodriguez Sant.6.1
10Mendez Br.7.6
18Amundsen7.1
20Gomes An.6.6
21Zaroury6.6
23Farsi6.2
25Zawadzki7.5
28Schulte8.6
31Moreira S.6.5
77Martinez Jos.6.1

Unavailable

Ali A. (Missing Player)
Habroune (Questionable)
Camacho R. (Questionable)

Coach: Laurent Courtois

Toronto

Starting XI

1Gavran7.3
3Pereira Mat.6.7
6Dorsch7.6
7Corbeanu Th.5.8
9Sargent7.2
10Mihailovic Dj.6.1
12Monlouis6.3
13Kuscevic6.0
21Osorio J.7.3
22Laryea6.4
90Morgan L.6.6

Unavailable

Franklin Ko. (Missing Player)
Palacio (Missing Player)
Zimmerman (Missing Player)

Coach: Ryan Fraser

League table

USA. MLS

#	Team	GP	W	L	T	G	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	30	16	7	7	63:31	55
2	St. Louis City	30	14	7	9	56:41	51
3	Dallas	30	14	7	9	55:47	51
4	San Jose Earthquakes	30	13	8	9	52:42	48
5	Houston Dynamo	30	13	9	8	41:39	47
6	Los Angeles	31	12	9	10	48:33	46
7	Seattle Sounders	30	11	10	9	39:37	42
8	Los Angeles Galaxy	31	10	11	10	43:52	40
9	Colorado Rapids	30	11	13	6	41:41	39
10	Real Salt Lake	30	10	14	6	45:48	36
11	Portland Timbers	30	9	14	7	51:56	34
12	San Diego	30	8	12	10	53:56	34
13	Minnesota United	30	8	12	10	47:55	34
14	Austin	30	7	13	10	38:56	31
15	Sporting Kansas City	30	6	20	4	36:75	22