Galatasaray vs Fenerbahce: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Galatasarayvs
FenerbahceThe model puts Galatasaray at 50%. The model leans toward Galatasaray. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Galatasaray.
- +Galatasaray creates more chances (31 vs 18 shots per game).
- +The head-to-head record favours Galatasaray (7-4-4).
- +Fenerbahce are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Galatasaray controls more of the ball (64% vs 57%).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Galatasaray have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Fenerbahce have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Galatasaray have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Galatasaray will be without Leao.
- Fenerbahce will be without Jayden Oosterwolde, Ake, Asensio, Muldur.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Galatasaray at 50%. The model puts the draw at 22%. The model puts Fenerbahce at 28%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Galatasaray is priced at 2.184. The draw is priced at 3.8. Fenerbahce is priced at 3.005.
Galatasaray have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. Fenerbahce have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
Galatasaray have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Galatasaray are on 2 wins in a row. Fenerbahce have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
Galatasaray average 2 goals per game this season. Galatasaray average 64% possession. Fenerbahce average 2 goals per game this season. Fenerbahce average 57% possession.
The model gives 67% for both teams to score. The model gives 71% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Galatasaray or Fenerbahce?
Our model rates Galatasaray as the most likely outcome at 50% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Galatasaray vs Fenerbahce?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 7 Galatasaray wins, 4 draws, 4 Fenerbahce wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Match statistics
Galatasaray
- 1Cakir U.
- 4Jacobs
- 6Sanchez Dav.
- 7Sallai R.
- 8Sara Ga.
- 11Akgun Yu.
- 34Torreira
- 42Bardakci
- 45Osimhen Vi.
- 53Yilmaz
- 83Batrakov
- Leao (Questionable)
Fenerbahce
- 3Brown
- 6Guendouzi
- 9Lukaku R.
- 11Greenwood M.
- 17Kahveci Ir.
- 21Peprah Oppong
- 27Semedo
- 31Moraes E.
- 37Skriniar
- 70Aydin
- 91Kante
- Jayden Oosterwolde (Missing Player)
- Ake (Questionable)
- Asensio (Missing Player)
- Muldur (Questionable)
League table
Turkey. SuperLiga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Amedspor | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 20:10 | 20 |
| 2 | Galatasaray | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17:11 | 19 |
| 3 | Fenerbahce | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 22:6 | 16 |
| 4 |  Trabzonspor | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 18:5 | 16 |
| 5 |  Kasimpasa | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13:9 | 16 |
| 6 |  Besiktas | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 16:10 | 15 |
| 7 |  Kocaelispor | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 11:9 | 15 |
| 8 |  BB Erzurumspor | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 8:12 | 14 |
| 9 |  Arca Corum | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 18:15 | 13 |
| 10 |  Goztepe | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 19:16 | 12 |
| 11 |  Alanyaspor | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9:11 | 12 |
| 12 |  Istanbul BFK | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12:12 | 11 |
| 13 |  Caykur Rizespor | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 8:11 | 10 |
| 14 |  Konyaspor | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 6:9 | 8 |
| 15 |  Gaziantep | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 9:15 | 8 |
| 16 |  Genclerbirligi | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 7:18 | 8 |
| 17 |  Samsunspor | 9 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 8:21 | 4 |
| 18 |  Eyupspor | 9 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 2:23 | 3 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.