Club Necaxa vs Juarez: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Club Necaxavs
JuarezThe model puts Club Necaxa at 54%. The model leans toward Club Necaxa. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours Juarez (3-6-6).
- +Juarez are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Club Necaxa have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Juarez have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Club Necaxa have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Club Necaxa will be without Pena Al..
- Juarez will be without Ayon, Romero, Romero, Torres.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 11 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Club Necaxa at 54%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Juarez at 23%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Club Necaxa. Club Necaxa is priced at 1.71. The draw is priced at 3.78. Juarez is priced at 4.345.
Club Necaxa have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Juarez have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 6 of their head-to-head meetings.
Club Necaxa have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Juarez have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 48% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Club Necaxa or Juarez?
Our model rates Club Necaxa as the most likely outcome at 54% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Club Necaxa vs Juarez?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 3 Club Necaxa wins, 6 draws, 6 Juarez wins.
Match statistics
Club Necaxa
- 2Martinez
- 3Olivera A.
- 6Leyva D.
- 9Carranza J.
- 12Jimenez
- 13Gonzalez
- 15Ochoa
- 16Pedraza
- 21Espindola
- 88Vargas Car
- 99Rodriguez
- Pena Al. (Missing Player)
Juarez
- 1Jurado Roca
- 2Sepulveda G.
- 5Garcia
- 11Rodriguez J.L.
- 13Dourado Ro.
- 14Lopes
- 19Estupinan O.
- 21Ricardinho
- 26Pina
- 33Nevarez Pulgarin
- 183Silva
- Ayon (Questionable)
- Romero (Questionable)
- Romero (Questionable)
- Torres (Questionable)
League table
Mexico. Liga MX| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Club America | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 32:16 | 27 |
| 2 |  Guadalajara | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 20:12 | 23 |
| 3 |  Cruz Azul | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 29:22 | 23 |
| 4 |  Deportivo Toluca | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 28:18 | 22 |
| 5 |  Leon | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 20:17 | 21 |
| 6 |  Atlas Guadalajara | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 21:23 | 21 |
| 7 |  Monterrey | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 23:17 | 20 |
| 8 |  Queretaro | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 16:15 | 20 |
| 9 |  Santos Laguna | 13 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 19:16 | 19 |
| 10 |  Tijuana | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 17:16 | 17 |
| 11 |  Pumas UNAM | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 19:22 | 16 |
| 12 |  Atletico San Luis | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 18:22 | 16 |
| 13 |  Puebla | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 13:17 | 16 |
| 14 |  Tigres de la UANL | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 14:18 | 14 |
| 15 |  Atlante | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 14:19 | 14 |
| 16 |  Pachuca | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 20:18 | 13 |
| 17 | Club Necaxa | 13 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 15:26 | 9 |
| 18 | Juarez | 13 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 8:32 | 4 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.