Atlante vs Atletico San Luis: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Atlantevs
Atletico San LuisThe model puts Atlante at 40%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Atlante.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- +Atletico San Luis are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Atlante have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Atletico San Luis have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Atlante have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Atlante will be without Meza H..
- Atletico San Luis will be without Macias Mora O.U., Joao Pedro, Medina Jes..
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Atlante at 40%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Atletico San Luis at 33%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Atlante is priced at 2.27. The draw is priced at 3.42. Atletico San Luis is priced at 2.945.
Atlante have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. Atletico San Luis have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Atlante have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Atletico San Luis have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Atletico San Luis are on 2 wins in a row.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Atlante or Atletico San Luis?
Our model rates Atlante as the most likely outcome at 40% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Atlante vs Atletico San Luis?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 13 meetings: 5 Atlante wins, 3 draws, 5 Atletico San Luis wins.
Odds movement
Match statistics
Atlante
- 1Jimenez O.
- 4Tercero Mendez
- 6Carrera
- 7Palacios
- 8Pizzuto
- 9Puente
- 19Calzadilla
- 29Portales
- 30Sarrafiore
- 34Jimenez
- 44Quiros Ha.
- Meza H. (Missing Player)
Atletico San Luis
- 2Torres
- 10Lamonge
- 11Rodriguez Da
- 13Caicedo
- 17Duarte
- 18Cruz Al.
- 22Llorente
- 25Lajud G.
- 30Galindo Cruz
- 31Aguila
- 99Mora
- Macias Mora O.U. (Questionable)
- Joao Pedro (Missing Player)
- Medina Jes. (Missing Player)
League table
Mexico. Liga MX| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Club America | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 32:16 | 27 |
| 2 |  Guadalajara | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 20:12 | 23 |
| 3 |  Cruz Azul | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 29:22 | 23 |
| 4 |  Deportivo Toluca | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 28:18 | 22 |
| 5 |  Leon | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 20:17 | 21 |
| 6 |  Atlas Guadalajara | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 21:23 | 21 |
| 7 |  Monterrey | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 23:17 | 20 |
| 8 |  Queretaro | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 16:15 | 20 |
| 9 |  Santos Laguna | 13 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 19:16 | 19 |
| 10 |  Tijuana | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 17:16 | 17 |
| 11 |  Pumas UNAM | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 19:22 | 16 |
| 12 | Atletico San Luis | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 18:22 | 16 |
| 13 |  Puebla | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 13:17 | 16 |
| 14 |  Tigres de la UANL | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 14:18 | 14 |
| 15 | Atlante | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 14:19 | 14 |
| 16 |  Pachuca | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 20:18 | 13 |
| 17 |  Club Necaxa | 13 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 15:26 | 9 |
| 18 |  Juarez | 13 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 8:32 | 4 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.