Pumas UNAM vs Tigres de la UANL: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Pumas UNAMvs
Tigres de la UANLThe model puts Pumas UNAM at 37%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours Pumas UNAM (6-7-2).
- −Pumas UNAM are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Tigres de la UANL are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Pumas UNAM have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Tigres de la UANL have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Pumas UNAM have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Pumas UNAM will be without Calderon De Real, Cordova, da Silva N.A., Macias J..
- Tigres de la UANL will be without Angulo, Farfan Mar., Pereira Silva J. H., Rodrigues O, Fernandez, Zwarg, Flores.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Pumas UNAM at 37%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Tigres de la UANL at 37%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Pumas UNAM is priced at 2.67. The draw is priced at 3.34. Tigres de la UANL is priced at 2.43.
Pumas UNAM have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. Tigres de la UANL have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 7 of their head-to-head meetings.
Pumas UNAM have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Tigres de la UANL have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Pumas UNAM or Tigres de la UANL?
Our model rates Pumas UNAM as the most likely outcome at 37% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Pumas UNAM vs Tigres de la UANL?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 6 Pumas UNAM wins, 7 draws, 2 Tigres de la UANL wins.
Match statistics
Pumas UNAM
- 1Navas
- 2Bennevendo
- 5Duarte Ru.
- 7Lopez
- 8Carrasquilla
- 10Huerta Se.
- 21Antuna U.
- 23Juninho Ol.
- 24Leone T.
- 31Morales
- 45Vite
- Calderon De Real (Missing Player)
- Cordova (Missing Player)
- da Silva N.A. (Missing Player)
- Macias J. (Missing Player)
Tigres de la UANL
- 1Guzman N.
- 5Araújo
- 8Gorriaran
- 11Brunetta
- 14Garza
- 15Franco
- 16Lainez Leyva
- 19Diego Lainez Leyva
- 22Martinez A. G.
- 30Sanchez Guevara
- 33Guerrero
- Angulo (Missing Player)
- Farfan Mar. (Questionable)
- Pereira Silva J. H. (Missing Player)
- Rodrigues O (Questionable)
- Fernandez (Missing Player)
- Zwarg (Questionable)
- Flores (Missing Player)
League table
Mexico. Liga MX| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Club America | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 32:16 | 27 |
| 2 |  Guadalajara | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 20:12 | 23 |
| 3 |  Cruz Azul | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 29:22 | 23 |
| 4 |  Deportivo Toluca | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 28:18 | 22 |
| 5 |  Leon | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 20:17 | 21 |
| 6 |  Atlas Guadalajara | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 21:23 | 21 |
| 7 |  Monterrey | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 23:17 | 20 |
| 8 |  Queretaro | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 16:15 | 20 |
| 9 |  Santos Laguna | 13 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 19:16 | 19 |
| 10 |  Tijuana | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 17:16 | 17 |
| 11 | Pumas UNAM | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 19:22 | 16 |
| 12 |  Atletico San Luis | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 18:22 | 16 |
| 13 |  Puebla | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 13:17 | 16 |
| 14 | Tigres de la UANL | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 14:18 | 14 |
| 15 |  Atlante | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 14:19 | 14 |
| 16 |  Pachuca | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 20:18 | 13 |
| 17 |  Club Necaxa | 13 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 15:26 | 9 |
| 18 |  Juarez | 13 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 8:32 | 4 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.