AEK Athens vs Real Madrid: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
AEK Athensvs
Real MadridThe model puts Real Madrid at 71%. The model leans toward Real Madrid. Confidence: high.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- AEK Athens have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Real Madrid have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Real Madrid is priced at 1.315.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 13 | 14 | 10 | 6 | 3 |
| 1 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 2 |
| 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts AEK Athens at 12%. The model puts the draw at 16%. The model puts Real Madrid at 71%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-2.
The market leans toward Real Madrid. AEK Athens is priced at 8.1. The draw is priced at 5.8. Real Madrid is priced at 1.315.
The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
AEK Athens have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Real Madrid have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
AEK Athens average 1 goals per game this season. AEK Athens average 49% possession. Real Madrid average 2 goals per game this season. Real Madrid average 36% possession.
The model gives 41% for both teams to score. The model gives 53% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, AEK Athens or Real Madrid?
Our model rates Real Madrid as the most likely outcome at 71% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for AEK Athens vs Real Madrid?
A scoreline around 0-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 2 meetings: 0 AEK Athens wins, 2 draws, 0 Real Madrid wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
UEFA Champions League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint-Germain | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14:5 | 9 |
| 2 |  Aston Villa | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12:3 | 9 |
| 3 |  Liverpool | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12:7 | 9 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10:5 | 9 |
| 5 |  Real Betis | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7:4 | 9 |
| 6 |  VfB Stuttgart | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7:2 | 7 |
| 7 |  Arsenal | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6:2 | 7 |
| 8 |  Barcelona | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 11:6 | 6 |
| 9 |  Como | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 10:5 | 6 |
| 10 |  Manchester City | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9:5 | 6 |
| 11 |  Club Brugge | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9:6 | 6 |
| 12 |  Sporting Clube de Portugal | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7:4 | 6 |
| 13 |  Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5:4 | 6 |
| 14 |  Bayern Munich | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10:5 | 5 |
| 15 |  Roma | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8:5 | 4 |
| 16 |  Atletico Madrid | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4:3 | 4 |
| 17 |  Shakhtar Donetsk | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4:3 | 4 |
| 18 |  PSV Eindhoven | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2:2 | 4 |
| 19 |  Villarreal | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 8:8 | 3 |
| 20 |  Manchester United | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5:6 | 3 |
| 21 |  Internazionale Milano | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5:6 | 3 |
| 22 |  Napoli | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5:7 | 3 |
| 23 |  Galatasaray | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6:9 | 3 |
| 24 |  LASK Linz | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6:9 | 3 |
| 25 |  Sabah Baku | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3:6 | 3 |
| 26 |  Feyenoord | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4:8 | 3 |
| 27 |  RC Lens | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3:7 | 3 |
| 28 |  Bodo-Glimt | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4:9 | 3 |
| 29 | AEK Athens | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3:8 | 3 |
| 30 |  RasenBallsport Leipzig | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3:8 | 3 |
| 31 |  Fenerbahce | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3:9 | 2 |
| 32 |  Slavia Prague | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4:7 | 1 |
| 33 |  Viking | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5:9 | 1 |
| 34 |  Porto | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2:6 | 0 |
| 35 |  Lille OSC | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4:10 | 0 |
| 36 |  Slovan Bratislava | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1:13 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.