AC Oulu vs Vaasan Palloseura: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
AC Ouluvs
Vaasan PalloseuraThe model puts AC Oulu at 40%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Vaasan Palloseura.
- +The head-to-head record favours AC Oulu (9-1-5).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- AC Oulu have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Vaasan Palloseura have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- AC Oulu have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings.
- AC Oulu is priced at 2.36.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts AC Oulu at 40%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Vaasan Palloseura at 34%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. AC Oulu is priced at 2.36. The draw is priced at 3.3. Vaasan Palloseura is priced at 2.914.
AC Oulu have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings. Vaasan Palloseura have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
AC Oulu have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Vaasan Palloseura have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Vaasan Palloseura are on 3 wins in a row.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, AC Oulu or Vaasan Palloseura?
Our model rates AC Oulu as the most likely outcome at 40% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for AC Oulu vs Vaasan Palloseura?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 9 AC Oulu wins, 1 draws, 5 Vaasan Palloseura wins.
League table
Finland. Veikkausliiga (Championship - Play-off)| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Inter Turku | 29 | 15 | 4 | 10 | 35:20 | 55 |
| 2 |  HJK | 29 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 55:34 | 52 |
| 3 | Vaasan Palloseura | 29 | 14 | 5 | 10 | 45:28 | 52 |
| 4 | AC Oulu | 29 | 13 | 12 | 4 | 36:37 | 43 |
| 5 |  Gnistan | 29 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 43:41 | 42 |
| 6 | Vaasan Palloseura | 29 | 11 | 12 | 6 | 31:34 | 39 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.