Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Olympique de Marseille: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Bayer 04 Leverkusenvs
Olympique de MarseilleThe model puts Bayer 04 Leverkusen at 67%. The model leans toward Bayer 04 Leverkusen. Confidence: high.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Olympique de Marseille have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen is priced at 1.43.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 12 | 8 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 14 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 11 | 7 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 6 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 3 | 2 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Bayer 04 Leverkusen at 67%. The model puts the draw at 19%. The model puts Olympique de Marseille at 14%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Bayer 04 Leverkusen. Bayer 04 Leverkusen is priced at 1.43. The draw is priced at 4.9. Olympique de Marseille is priced at 6.65.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Olympique de Marseille have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Olympique de Marseille have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen average 2 goals per game this season. Bayer 04 Leverkusen average 56% possession. Olympique de Marseille average 1 goals per game this season. Olympique de Marseille average 45% possession.
The model gives 43% for both teams to score. The model gives 57% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Bayer 04 Leverkusen or Olympique de Marseille?
Our model rates Bayer 04 Leverkusen as the most likely outcome at 67% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Olympique de Marseille?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 2 meetings: 1 Bayer 04 Leverkusen wins, 0 draws, 1 Olympique de Marseille wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
UEFA Europa League - League stage| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Benfica | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10:2 | 9 |
| 2 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8:0 | 9 |
| 3 |  Bournemouth | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8:1 | 9 |
| 4 |  Ferencvarosi | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9:3 | 9 |
| 5 |  Olympiacos Piraeus | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4:1 | 9 |
| 6 |  Royale Union Saint-Gilloise | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8:1 | 7 |
| 7 |  Juventus | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9:3 | 7 |
| 8 |  Besiktas | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9:5 | 7 |
| 9 |  Sunderland | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4:2 | 7 |
| 10 |  AZ Alkmaar | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6:2 | 6 |
| 11 |  AC Omonia | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5:4 | 6 |
| 12 |  Lyon | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5:6 | 6 |
| 13 |  Stade Rennais | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:3 | 5 |
| 14 |  Real Sociedad | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8:3 | 4 |
| 15 |  Crystal Palace | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8:5 | 4 |
| 16 |  AC Sparta Prague | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5:3 | 4 |
| 17 |  Levski Sofia | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3:3 | 4 |
| 18 |  Dinamo Zagreb | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3:4 | 4 |
| 19 |  Sturm Graz | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1:3 | 4 |
| 20 |  N.E.C. | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5:8 | 4 |
| 21 |  Red Bull Salzburg | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3:6 | 4 |
| 22 |  Anderlecht | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4:3 | 3 |
| 23 |  TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5:5 | 3 |
| 24 |  Milan | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4:5 | 3 |
| 25 |  Celta | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3:4 | 3 |
| 26 |  OFI Crete | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3:4 | 3 |
| 27 |  Jagiellonia Bialystok | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4:6 | 3 |
| 28 |  S.C.U. Torreense | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4:7 | 3 |
| 29 |  Celje | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2:7 | 1 |
| 30 |  Hapoel Be'er Sheva | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1:6 | 1 |
| 31 |  Lillestrom | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2:9 | 1 |
| 32 |  Lech Poznan | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1:9 | 1 |
| 33 |  Viktoria Plzen | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2:7 | 0 |
| 34 | Olympique de Marseille | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1:6 | 0 |
| 35 |  Celtic | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3:9 | 0 |
| 36 |  Ararat - Armenia | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2:11 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.