Lazio vs Cagliari Calcio: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Laziovs
Cagliari CalcioThe model puts Lazio at 64%. The model leans toward Lazio. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Lazio.
- −The head-to-head record favours Cagliari Calcio (0-3-12).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Lazio have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Cagliari Calcio have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Lazio is priced at 1.48.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| 1 | 7 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 6 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Lazio at 64%. The model puts the draw at 20%. The model puts Cagliari Calcio at 16%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Lazio. Lazio is priced at 1.48. The draw is priced at 4.3. Cagliari Calcio is priced at 6.85.
Cagliari Calcio have won 12 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Lazio have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Cagliari Calcio have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Lazio average 2 goals per game this season. Lazio average 40% possession. Cagliari Calcio average 2 goals per game this season. Cagliari Calcio average 45% possession.
The model gives 56% for both teams to score. The model gives 72% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Lazio or Cagliari Calcio?
Our model rates Lazio as the most likely outcome at 64% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Lazio vs Cagliari Calcio?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 0 Lazio wins, 3 draws, 12 Cagliari Calcio wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
Italy. Serie A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Internazionale Milano | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 23:10 | 22 |
| 2 | Lazio | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 16:5 | 22 |
| 3 |  Roma | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 19:6 | 18 |
| 4 |  Como | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 14:7 | 17 |
| 5 |  Milan | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 14:7 | 15 |
| 6 |  Frosinone Calcio | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 17:13 | 14 |
| 7 |  Torino | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 13:11 | 13 |
| 8 | Cagliari Calcio | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 6:9 | 13 |
| 9 |  Juventus | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9:8 | 11 |
| 10 |  Napoli | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 13:10 | 11 |
| 11 |  Atalanta | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 14:15 | 10 |
| 12 |  Lecce | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 9:12 | 9 |
| 13 |  Bologna 1909 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 8:10 | 8 |
| 14 |  Sassuolo Calcio | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 12:16 | 8 |
| 15 |  Monza 1912 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 15:18 | 7 |
| 16 |  Genoa | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 6:13 | 7 |
| 17 |  Udinese Calcio | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 9:16 | 4 |
| 18 |  Fiorentina | 8 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 9:19 | 4 |
| 19 |  Parma | 8 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 5:15 | 4 |
| 20 |  Unione Venezia | 8 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 6:17 | 3 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.