Juventus vs Napoli: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Juventusvs
NapoliThe model puts Juventus at 46%. The model leans toward Juventus. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Juventus.
- −The head-to-head record favours Napoli (4-2-9).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Juventus have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Napoli have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Juventus have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Juventus is priced at 2.088.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Juventus at 46%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Napoli at 28%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market leans toward Juventus. Juventus is priced at 2.088. The draw is priced at 3.46. Napoli is priced at 3.48.
Juventus have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Napoli have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Juventus have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Napoli have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Juventus average 2 goals per game this season. Juventus average 53% possession. Napoli average 2 goals per game this season. Napoli average 46% possession.
The model gives 68% for both teams to score. The model gives 71% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Juventus or Napoli?
Our model rates Juventus as the most likely outcome at 46% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Juventus vs Napoli?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 4 Juventus wins, 2 draws, 9 Napoli wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
Italy. Serie A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Internazionale Milano | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 23:10 | 22 |
| 2 |  Lazio | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 16:5 | 22 |
| 3 |  Roma | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 19:6 | 18 |
| 4 |  Como | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 14:7 | 17 |
| 5 |  Milan | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 14:7 | 15 |
| 6 |  Frosinone Calcio | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 17:13 | 14 |
| 7 |  Torino | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 13:11 | 13 |
| 8 |  Cagliari Calcio | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 6:9 | 13 |
| 9 | Juventus | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9:8 | 11 |
| 10 | Napoli | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 13:10 | 11 |
| 11 |  Atalanta | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 14:15 | 10 |
| 12 |  Lecce | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 9:12 | 9 |
| 13 |  Bologna 1909 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 8:10 | 8 |
| 14 |  Sassuolo Calcio | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 12:16 | 8 |
| 15 |  Monza 1912 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 15:18 | 7 |
| 16 |  Genoa | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 6:13 | 7 |
| 17 |  Udinese Calcio | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 9:16 | 4 |
| 18 |  Fiorentina | 8 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 9:19 | 4 |
| 19 |  Parma | 8 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 5:15 | 4 |
| 20 |  Unione Venezia | 8 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 6:17 | 3 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.