Sassuolo Calcio vs Fiorentina: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Sassuolo Calciovs
FiorentinaThe model puts Fiorentina at 38%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Sassuolo Calcio.
- +The head-to-head record favours Fiorentina (4-4-7).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Sassuolo Calcio have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Fiorentina have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Sassuolo Calcio have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Fiorentina is priced at 2.475.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 |
| 3 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | |
| 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Sassuolo Calcio at 37%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Fiorentina at 38%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-2.
The market frames this as a close contest. Sassuolo Calcio is priced at 2.7. The draw is priced at 3.58. Fiorentina is priced at 2.475.
Sassuolo Calcio have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Fiorentina have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
Sassuolo Calcio have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Fiorentina have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
Sassuolo Calcio average 3 goals per game this season. Sassuolo Calcio average 44% possession. Fiorentina average 2 goals per game this season. Fiorentina average 38% possession.
The model gives 79% for both teams to score. The model gives 81% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Sassuolo Calcio or Fiorentina?
Our model rates Fiorentina as the most likely outcome at 38% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Sassuolo Calcio vs Fiorentina?
A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 4 Sassuolo Calcio wins, 4 draws, 7 Fiorentina wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
Italy. Serie A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Internazionale Milano | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 23:10 | 22 |
| 2 |  Lazio | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 16:5 | 22 |
| 3 |  Roma | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 19:6 | 18 |
| 4 |  Como | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 14:7 | 17 |
| 5 |  Milan | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 14:7 | 15 |
| 6 |  Frosinone Calcio | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 17:13 | 14 |
| 7 |  Torino | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 13:11 | 13 |
| 8 |  Cagliari Calcio | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 6:9 | 13 |
| 9 |  Juventus | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9:8 | 11 |
| 10 |  Napoli | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 13:10 | 11 |
| 11 |  Atalanta | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 14:15 | 10 |
| 12 |  Lecce | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 9:12 | 9 |
| 13 |  Bologna 1909 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 8:10 | 8 |
| 14 | Sassuolo Calcio | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 12:16 | 8 |
| 15 |  Monza 1912 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 15:18 | 7 |
| 16 |  Genoa | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 6:13 | 7 |
| 17 |  Udinese Calcio | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 9:16 | 4 |
| 18 | Fiorentina | 8 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 9:19 | 4 |
| 19 |  Parma | 8 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 5:15 | 4 |
| 20 |  Unione Venezia | 8 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 6:17 | 3 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.