1. Koln vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
1. Kolnvs
Bayer 04 LeverkusenThe model puts Bayer 04 Leverkusen at 53%. The model leans toward Bayer 04 Leverkusen. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours 1. Koln.
- +The head-to-head record favours Bayer 04 Leverkusen (4-1-10).
- +Bayer 04 Leverkusen creates more chances (17 vs 19 shots per game).
- +Bayer 04 Leverkusen controls more of the ball (50% vs 60%).
- +1. Koln are dealing with notable absentees.
- −Bayer 04 Leverkusen are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- 1. Koln have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- 1. Koln have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- 1. Koln will be without Rondic, Hubers, Berg, Dallinga, Skhiri, Ache R..
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen will be without Diaby M., Kennet Eichhorn, Kofane, Doue G., Ben Seghir, Terrier M..
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 |
| 1 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 2 |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts 1. Koln at 27%. The model puts the draw at 20%. The model puts Bayer 04 Leverkusen at 53%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-2.
The market leans toward Bayer 04 Leverkusen. 1. Koln is priced at 3.78. The draw is priced at 4.2. Bayer 04 Leverkusen is priced at 1.816.
1. Koln have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Bayer 04 Leverkusen have won 10 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
1. Koln have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Bayer 04 Leverkusen have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
1. Koln average 2 goals per game this season. 1. Koln average 50% possession. Bayer 04 Leverkusen average 2 goals per game this season. Bayer 04 Leverkusen average 60% possession.
The model gives 67% for both teams to score. The model gives 70% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, 1. Koln or Bayer 04 Leverkusen?
Our model rates Bayer 04 Leverkusen as the most likely outcome at 53% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for 1. Koln vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen?
A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 4 1. Koln wins, 1 draws, 10 Bayer 04 Leverkusen wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
Match statistics
1. Koln
- 1Schwabe
- 2Schmied J.
- 3Sosa
- 5Krauss T.
- 10El Mala
- 17Castro-Montes
- 22Simpson-Pusey
- 23Okon
- 30Bulter M.
- 37Maina
- 47Moore
- Rondic (2)
- Hubers (2)
- Berg (2)
- Dallinga (2)
- Skhiri (2)
- Ache R. (2)
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- 1Flekken
- 2Medina Fa.
- 3Gutierrez Ortega
- 4Quansah J.
- 6Fernandez
- 7Hofmann J.
- 9Moreira
- 12Tapsoba E.
- 14Schick P.
- 24Garcia A.
- 30Maza
- Diaby M. (2)
- Kennet Eichhorn (2)
- Kofane (3)
- Doue G. (2)
- Ben Seghir (2)
- Terrier M. (3)
League table
Germany. Bundesliga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern Munich | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 29:9 | 21 |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 16:7 | 21 |
| 3 |  RasenBallsport Leipzig | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 27:13 | 18 |
| 4 |  Freiburg | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 18:10 | 16 |
| 5 |  Werder Bremen | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 17:15 | 15 |
| 6 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 18:16 | 13 |
| 7 |  Elversberg | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 17:18 | 13 |
| 8 |  VfB Stuttgart | 9 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 15:15 | 12 |
| 9 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15:20 | 12 |
| 10 |  Hamburger | 9 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 10:20 | 12 |
| 11 |  1. FSV Mainz 05 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 18:19 | 10 |
| 12 |  Paderborn 07 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 8:11 | 10 |
| 13 |  Augsburg | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 20:20 | 9 |
| 14 |  TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 14:16 | 9 |
| 15 | 1. Koln | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9:12 | 9 |
| 16 |  Union Berlin | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7:19 | 7 |
| 17 |  Schalke 04 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 4:9 | 6 |
| 18 |  Borussia Monchengladbach | 9 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 12:25 | 4 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.