Freiburg vs Union Berlin: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Freiburgvs
Union BerlinThe model puts Freiburg at 66%. Freiburg are on 3 wins in a row. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Freiburg.
- +Freiburg score more per game (3.0 at home vs 0.0 away).
- −The head-to-head record favours Union Berlin (2-5-8).
- +Freiburg creates more chances (16 vs 5 shots per game).
- +Freiburg controls more of the ball (52% vs 34%).
- −Freiburg are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Union Berlin have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Freiburg take 16 shots per game.
- Union Berlin take 5 shots per game.
- The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
- Union Berlin will be without Andrik Markgraf, Kemlein, Skov R., Uduokhai, Nsoki S..
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 12 | 8 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 13 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 10 | 7 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 6 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 3 | 2 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
Freiburg are on 3 wins in a row. Freiburg have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
Union Berlin have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Freiburg average 3 goals per game this season. Union Berlin average 0 goals per game this season.
Freiburg take 16 shots per game. Freiburg average 52% possession. Union Berlin take 5 shots per game. Union Berlin average 34% possession.
Union Berlin have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 5 of their head-to-head meetings. Freiburg have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
Union Berlin will be without Andrik Markgraf, Kemlein, Skov R., Uduokhai, Nsoki S.. Freiburg will be without Muslija, Ogbus.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Freiburg or Union Berlin?
Our model rates Freiburg as the most likely outcome at 66% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Freiburg vs Union Berlin?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 2 Freiburg wins, 5 draws, 8 Union Berlin wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
Match statistics
Freiburg
- 1Backhaus
- 3Lienhart Ph.
- 7Scherhant
- 8Eggestein
- 14Suzuki
- 16Engelhardt
- 19Beste
- 28Ginter
- 29Treu
- 31Matanovic
- 33Makengo
- Muslija (2)
- Ogbus (2)
Union Berlin
- 1Ronnow
- 4Van Den Bosch
- 5Friedrich M.
- 8Khedira R.
- 9Burcu
- 11Jeong W-Y.
- 13Schafer A.
- 15Rothe
- 19Haberer
- 20Aebischer
- 21Skarke
- Andrik Markgraf (2)
- Kemlein (2)
- Skov R. (2)
- Uduokhai (2)
- Nsoki S. (2)
League table
Germany. Bundesliga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern Munich | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 29:9 | 21 |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 16:7 | 21 |
| 3 |  RasenBallsport Leipzig | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 27:13 | 18 |
| 4 | Freiburg | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 18:10 | 16 |
| 5 |  Werder Bremen | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 17:15 | 15 |
| 6 |  Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 18:16 | 13 |
| 7 |  Elversberg | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 17:18 | 13 |
| 8 |  VfB Stuttgart | 9 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 15:15 | 12 |
| 9 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15:20 | 12 |
| 10 |  Hamburger | 9 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 10:20 | 12 |
| 11 |  1. FSV Mainz 05 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 18:19 | 10 |
| 12 |  Paderborn 07 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 8:11 | 10 |
| 13 |  Augsburg | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 20:20 | 9 |
| 14 |  TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 14:16 | 9 |
| 15 |  1. Koln | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9:12 | 9 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7:19 | 7 |
| 17 |  Schalke 04 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 4:9 | 6 |
| 18 |  Borussia Monchengladbach | 9 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 12:25 | 4 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.