Germany. Bundesliga

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs Schalke 04: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

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TSG 1899 Hoffenheimvs

Schalke 04

Our predictionTSG 1899 Hoffenheim to win

Model score: High · 92/100

Score hint: 2-0

The model puts TSG 1899 Hoffenheim at 64%. Schalke 04 have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Confidence: high.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

+Recent form favours TSG 1899 Hoffenheim.
+TSG 1899 Hoffenheim score more per game (2.0 at home vs 1.0 away).
+The head-to-head record favours TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (8-3-4).
+TSG 1899 Hoffenheim creates more chances (19 vs 11 shots per game).
−TSG 1899 Hoffenheim are dealing with notable absentees.
+Schalke 04 are dealing with notable absentees.

Win probabilities

1 · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim64%

Draw18%

2 · Schalke 0418%

1 · TSG 1899 HoffenheimDraw2 · Schalke 04

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

1X2TSG 1899 Hoffenheim1.59+5.0%

1X2Schalke 044.94-1.7%

1X2Draw4.44-3.3%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Recent form

TSG 1899 HoffenheimDLLWW

Schalke 04LLDLL

Team strength rating

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim

Schalke 04

Expected goals

2.24TSG 1899 Hoffenheim

0.73Schalke 04

Over 2.5 goals57%

Both teams to score46%

Most likely scorelines

2-012.9%

1-011.5%

3-09.6%

2-19.4%

1-18.4%

3-17.0%

Match DNA

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim Schalke 04

Key points

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim take 19 shots per game.
Schalke 04 average 1 goals per game this season.
The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win1.59Model edge (+5.0%)

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2
0	5	4	1
1	11	8	3
2	13	9	3
3	10	7	3
4	5	4	1
5	2	2

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Schalke 04 have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim take 19 shots per game. Schalke 04 take 11 shots per game. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim average 52% possession. Schalke 04 average 44% possession.

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings. Schalke 04 have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim will be without Wimmer, Nathan De Cat, Hajdari, Prass, Gendrey, Conte, Coufal, Hlozek, Moerstedt. Schalke 04 will be without Wober, Sylla M., Gantenbein, Schallenberg, Bachmann.

The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0. The model gives 57% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, TSG 1899 Hoffenheim or Schalke 04?

Our model rates TSG 1899 Hoffenheim as the most likely outcome at 64% probability.

What's a likely scoreline for TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs Schalke 04?

A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.

What's the head-to-head record?

In the last 15 meetings: 8 TSG 1899 Hoffenheim wins, 3 draws, 4 Schalke 04 wins.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.

See odds at bookmakers

Odds movement

Home 1.59 Draw 4.44 Away 4.94

Match statistics

Player of the matchKariusSchalke 048.7