Le Havre vs Lorient: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Le Havrevs
LorientThe model puts Lorient at 39%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Le Havre creates more chances (15 vs 9 shots per game).
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- +Le Havre are dealing with notable absentees.
- −Lorient are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Lorient have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Le Havre have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Le Havre take 15 shots per game.
- Lorient take 9 shots per game.
- The model sees this as a close contest.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12 | 13 | 7 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 13 | 13 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
Le Havre have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Lorient have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Le Havre have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. Lorient have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 5 of their head-to-head meetings.
Le Havre take 15 shots per game. Lorient take 9 shots per game. Le Havre average 1 goals per game this season. Lorient average 1 goals per game this season.
Le Havre will be without Mambimbi, Mpasi, Zagadou, Seko A., Jelert, Pembele. Lorient will be without Bandiougou Fadiga, Katseris, Bamba.
The model puts Le Havre at 34%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Lorient at 39%. The market frames this as a close contest.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Le Havre or Lorient?
Our model rates Lorient as the most likely outcome at 39% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Lorient?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 6 Le Havre wins, 5 draws, 4 Lorient wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
Match statistics
Le Havre
- 5Touba
- 6Mwanga
- 7Richardson
- 9Maja J.
- 16Bodart
- 20Ouziad
- 23Sasso
- 26Ebonog
- 27Koffi
- 30Nakamura
- 38Fofana
- Mambimbi (2)
- Mpasi (2)
- Zagadou (2)
- Seko A. (2)
- Jelert (3)
- Pembele (3)
Lorient
- 3Talbi
- 8Cadiou
- 17Makengo
- 19Faye
- 20Sylla
- 32Adjei
- 38Mvogo
- 42Kone
- 43Kouassi
- 62Avom
- 95Toure
- Bandiougou Fadiga (2)
- Katseris (2)
- Bamba (3)
League table
France. Ligue 1| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint-Germain | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 21:10 | 20 |
| 2 |  Paris | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 17:10 | 20 |
| 3 |  Lille OSC | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 12:6 | 18 |
| 4 |  Lyon | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 15:7 | 17 |
| 5 |  Stade Rennais | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 20:19 | 16 |
| 6 |  Olympique de Marseille | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 20:13 | 15 |
| 7 |  AS Monaco | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 12:10 | 15 |
| 8 |  Nice | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 13:12 | 14 |
| 9 |  RC Lens | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 16:13 | 13 |
| 10 |  Toulouse | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15:14 | 13 |
| 11 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 16:12 | 12 |
| 12 | Lorient | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 7:8 | 12 |
| 13 |  Strasbourg | 10 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 18:22 | 10 |
| 14 |  Auxerre | 10 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 13:24 | 10 |
| 15 |  Angers SCO | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 9:17 | 8 |
| 16 |  Troyes AC | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 7:16 | 8 |
| 17 |  Le Mans | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 11:18 | 7 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 9 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 9:20 | 2 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.