RC Lens vs Olympique de Marseille: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
RC Lensvs
Olympique de MarseilleThe model puts RC Lens at 42%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- −RC Lens are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Olympique de Marseille are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- RC Lens have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Olympique de Marseille have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- RC Lens have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings.
- RC Lens will be without Edouard Od., Ganiou, Nawrocki, Sima, Chavez.
- Olympique de Marseille will be without Cornelius, Harit, Emerson P..
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts RC Lens at 42%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Olympique de Marseille at 33%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. RC Lens is priced at 2.275. The draw is priced at 3.8. Olympique de Marseille is priced at 2.856.
RC Lens have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. Olympique de Marseille have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
RC Lens have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Olympique de Marseille have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
RC Lens average 2 goals per game this season. RC Lens average 54% possession. Olympique de Marseille average 2 goals per game this season. Olympique de Marseille average 59% possession.
The model gives 70% for both teams to score. The model gives 71% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, RC Lens or Olympique de Marseille?
Our model rates RC Lens as the most likely outcome at 42% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for RC Lens vs Olympique de Marseille?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 7 RC Lens wins, 1 draws, 7 Olympique de Marseille wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
Match statistics
RC Lens
- 2Aguilar Rub.
- 6Baidoo
- 7Sotoca
- 9Hazard T.
- 10Thauvin
- 14Udol
- 20Todibo
- 21Haidara A.
- 23Abdulhamid S.
- 27Cuisance
- 40Risser
- Edouard Od. (2)
- Ganiou (2)
- Nawrocki (2)
- Sima (2)
- Chavez (3)
Olympique de Marseille
- 1De Lange J.
- 4Egan-Riley
- 6Nadi
- 8Abdelli H.
- 9Gouiri
- 14Paixao I.
- 21Aguerd
- 22Weah
- 23Hojbjerg
- 25Garcia Ul.
- 74Bezahaf
- Cornelius (2)
- Harit (3)
- Emerson P. (3)
League table
France. Ligue 1| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint-Germain | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 21:10 | 20 |
| 2 |  Paris | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 17:10 | 20 |
| 3 |  Lille OSC | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 12:6 | 18 |
| 4 |  Lyon | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 15:7 | 17 |
| 5 |  Stade Rennais | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 20:19 | 16 |
| 6 | Olympique de Marseille | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 20:13 | 15 |
| 7 |  AS Monaco | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 12:10 | 15 |
| 8 |  Nice | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 13:12 | 14 |
| 9 | RC Lens | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 16:13 | 13 |
| 10 |  Toulouse | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15:14 | 13 |
| 11 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 16:12 | 12 |
| 12 |  Lorient | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 7:8 | 12 |
| 13 |  Strasbourg | 10 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 18:22 | 10 |
| 14 |  Auxerre | 10 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 13:24 | 10 |
| 15 |  Angers SCO | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 9:17 | 8 |
| 16 |  Troyes AC | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 7:16 | 8 |
| 17 |  Le Mans | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 11:18 | 7 |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 9 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 9:20 | 2 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.