France. Ligue 1

Stade Brestois 29 vs Lyon: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

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Stade Brestois 29vs

Lyon

Our predictionStade Brestois 29 to win

Model score: Low · 28/100

Score hint: 2-1

The model puts Stade Brestois 29 at 39%. The model puts Lyon at 38%. Confidence: low.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

−Recent form favours Lyon.
+Stade Brestois 29 score more per game (2.0 at home vs 1.0 away).
+Stade Brestois 29 creates more chances (19 vs 9 shots per game).
+The head-to-head record favours Stade Brestois 29 (6-6-3).
−Stade Brestois 29 are dealing with notable absentees.
+Lyon are dealing with notable absentees.

Win probabilities

1 · Stade Brestois 2939%

Draw23%

2 · Lyon38%

1 · Stade Brestois 29Draw2 · Lyon

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

1X2Stade Brestois 292.74+4.5%

1X2Lyon2.44-0.7%

1X2Draw3.58-3.9%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Expected goals

1.54Stade Brestois 29

1.36Lyon

Over 2.5 goals55%

Both teams to score58%

Recent form

Stade Brestois 29DLLLL

LyonWWDLD

Team strength rating

Stade Brestois 29

Lyon

Most likely scorelines

1-111.5%

2-18.9%

1-08.5%

1-27.9%

0-17.5%

2-06.5%

Match DNA

Stade Brestois 29 Lyon

Key points

Stade Brestois 29 have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
Lyon are on 2 wins in a row.
The model sees this as a close contest.
Lyon will be without Openda, Sulc P., Ouédraogo, Kango, Niakhate, Nuamah, Morton Ty..
The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Stade Brestois 29 win2.74Model edge (+4.5%)

Double chanceStade Brestois 29 or draw—Info

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	5	7	5	2
1	8	12	8	4	1
2	6	9	6	3
3	3	5	3	1
4	1	2	1
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

Stade Brestois 29 have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Lyon have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Lyon are on 2 wins in a row.

Stade Brestois 29 average 2 goals per game this season. Stade Brestois 29 take 19 shots per game. Stade Brestois 29 average 49% possession. Lyon average 1 goals per game this season. Lyon take 9 shots per game. Lyon average 44% possession.

Stade Brestois 29 have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. Lyon have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 6 of their head-to-head meetings.

Stade Brestois 29 will be without Chardonnet B., Le Guen. Lyon will be without Openda, Sulc P., Ouédraogo, Kango, Niakhate, Nuamah, Morton Ty..

The model gives 58% for both teams to score. The model gives 55% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, Stade Brestois 29 or Lyon?

Our model rates Stade Brestois 29 as the most likely outcome at 39% probability.

What's a likely scoreline for Stade Brestois 29 vs Lyon?

A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.

What's the head-to-head record?

In the last 15 meetings: 6 Stade Brestois 29 wins, 6 draws, 3 Lyon wins.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.

See odds at bookmakers

Odds movement

Home 2.74 Draw 3.58 Away 2.44

Match statistics

Player of the matchTousartStade Brestois 297.9