Braga vs Famalicao: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Bragavs
FamalicaoThe model puts Braga at 49%. The model leans toward Braga. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Famalicao.
- +The head-to-head record favours Braga (6-7-2).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Braga have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Famalicao have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Braga have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Braga is priced at 1.91.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Braga at 49%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Famalicao at 26%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Braga. Braga is priced at 1.91. The draw is priced at 3.35. Famalicao is priced at 3.88.
Braga have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. Famalicao have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 7 of their head-to-head meetings.
Braga have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Famalicao have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 50% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Braga or Famalicao?
Our model rates Braga as the most likely outcome at 49% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Braga vs Famalicao?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 6 Braga wins, 7 draws, 2 Famalicao wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.