Gamba Osaka vs Buriram United: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Gamba Osakavs
Buriram UnitedThe model puts Gamba Osaka at 58%. The model leans toward Gamba Osaka. Confidence: high.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Gamba Osaka have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Buriram United have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Gamba Osaka is priced at 1.66.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | |||
| 3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Gamba Osaka at 58%. The model puts the draw at 22%. The model puts Buriram United at 21%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Gamba Osaka. Gamba Osaka is priced at 1.66. The draw is priced at 4.28. Buriram United is priced at 4.58.
Buriram United have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Gamba Osaka have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Buriram United have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 46% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Gamba Osaka or Buriram United?
Our model rates Gamba Osaka as the most likely outcome at 58% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Gamba Osaka vs Buriram United?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 2 meetings: 0 Gamba Osaka wins, 1 draws, 1 Buriram United wins.
Odds movement
League table
AFC Champions League Elite - League stage| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Kashima Antlers | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8:1 | 6 |
| 2 | Gamba Osaka | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7:2 | 6 |
| 3 |  Beijing Guoan | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4:1 | 6 |
| 4 |  Vissel Kobe | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4:1 | 6 |
| 5 |  Shanghai Port | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7:5 | 4 |
| 6 |  Darul Takzim | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3:1 | 4 |
| 7 |  Daejeon Hana Citizen | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2:1 | 4 |
| 8 |  Kashiwa Reysol | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6:3 | 3 |
| 9 |  Kyoto Sanga | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 3 |
| 10 |  Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:3 | 3 |
| 11 | Buriram United | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1:2 | 1 |
| 12 |  Ratchaburi | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4:7 | 0 |
| 13 |  Pohang Steelers | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1:5 | 0 |
| 14 |  Hanoi Police | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1:5 | 0 |
| 15 |  Port | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2:7 | 0 |
| 16 |  Newcastle Jets | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2:10 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.