Italy. Serie A

Monza 1912 vs Atalanta: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

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Monza 1912vs

Atalanta

Our predictionAtalanta to win

Model score: Low · 7/100

Score hint: 1-2

The model puts Atalanta at 40%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

−The head-to-head record favours Monza 1912 (11-1-2).
−Recent form favours Monza 1912.
−Monza 1912 score more per game (2.0 at home vs 1.0 away).
−Monza 1912 creates more chances (14 vs 10 shots per game).
+Monza 1912 are dealing with notable absentees.
−Atalanta are dealing with notable absentees.

Win probabilities

1 · Monza 191238%

Draw21%

2 · Atalanta40%

1 · Monza 1912Draw2 · Atalanta

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

1X2Monza 19123.28+9.4%

1X2Draw3.80-3.8%

1X2Atalanta2.06-5.7%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Expected goals

1.49Monza 1912

1.41Atalanta

Over 2.5 goals55%

Both teams to score58%

Recent form

Monza 1912DWDDL

AtalantaLWLLL

Most likely scorelines

1-111.6%

2-18.6%

1-08.2%

1-28.1%

0-17.8%

2-06.1%

Team strength rating

Monza 1912

Atalanta

Match DNA

Monza 1912 Atalanta

Key points

The model's most likely scoreline is 1-2.
Atalanta will be without Hien I., Kossounou O., Thomas Pompei, Kolasinac, Kristensen, Kessie, Raspadori, Bellanova.
Monza 1912 average 2 goals per game this season.
Atalanta average 1 goals per game this season.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Atalanta win2.06Avoid (-5.7%)

Double chanceAtalanta or draw—Info

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	6	8	5	3
1	8	12	8	4	1
2	6	9	6	3
3	3	4	3	1
4	1	2	1
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts Monza 1912 at 38%. The model puts Atalanta at 40%. The model puts the draw at 21%.

Monza 1912 have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Atalanta have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.

Monza 1912 average 2 goals per game this season. Atalanta average 1 goals per game this season. Monza 1912 take 14 shots per game. Atalanta take 10 shots per game.

Atalanta will be without Hien I., Kossounou O., Thomas Pompei, Kolasinac, Kristensen, Kessie, Raspadori, Bellanova. Monza 1912 will be without Pessina, Ziolkowski, Folorunsho, Yvan Maye.

The model's most likely scoreline is 1-2. The model gives 58% for both teams to score. The model gives 55% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, Monza 1912 or Atalanta?

Our model rates Atalanta as the most likely outcome at 40% probability.

What's a likely scoreline for Monza 1912 vs Atalanta?

A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.

What's the head-to-head record?

In the last 14 meetings: 11 Monza 1912 wins, 1 draws, 2 Atalanta wins.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.

See odds at bookmakers

Odds movement

Home 3.28 Draw 3.80 Away 2.06

Match statistics

Player of the matchObricAtalanta8.0

Monza 1912

Starting XI

1Tornqvist N.7.0
2Goglichidze6.7
7Mangas7.3
8Ondoa J.5.7
9Varela6.4
14Akinsanmiro6.1
19Birindelli7.0
44Carboni6.7
46Robinson6.1
47Mota6.4
60Kouadio6.3

Unavailable

Pessina (2)
Ziolkowski (2)
Folorunsho (3)
Yvan Maye (3)

Coach: Juric

Atalanta

Starting XI

8Pasalic7.8
11Rowe7.5
13Ederson6.5
17De Ketelaere6.6
29Carnesecchi6.3
40Obric8.0
41Idele6.2
42Scalvini Gi.7.2
77Zappacosta6.6
90Krstovic N.7.5
99Elmas E.7.3

Unavailable

Hien I. (2)
Kossounou O. (2)
Thomas Pompei (2)
Kolasinac (2)
Kristensen (2)
Kessie (3)
Raspadori (3)
Bellanova (3)

Coach: Maurizio Sarri

League table

Italy. Serie A

#	Team	GP	W	L	T	G	Pts
1	Lazio	10	9	0	1	24:8	28
2	Roma	11	8	0	3	31:10	27
3	Internazionale Milano	10	8	1	1	26:13	25
4	Como	10	7	1	2	18:8	23
5	Milan	10	6	1	3	21:12	21
6	Frosinone Calcio	11	6	3	2	24:15	20
7	Juventus	10	5	3	2	13:10	17
8	Bologna 1909	11	5	4	2	16:14	17
9	Cagliari Calcio	11	5	5	1	10:15	16
10	Napoli	10	4	4	2	17:13	14
11	Torino	11	4	5	2	15:17	14
12	Genoa	10	4	5	1	10:14	13
13	Atalanta	10	3	5	2	16:20	11
14	Lecce	11	3	7	1	12:22	10
15	Fiorentina	10	2	6	2	15:23	8
16	Parma	11	2	7	2	9:17	8
17	Sassuolo Calcio	11	2	7	2	16:29	8
18	Monza 1912	10	2	7	1	17:24	7
19	Unione Venezia	11	2	9	0	8:21	6
20	Udinese Calcio	11	1	8	2	12:25	5

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Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.