Fiorentina vs Juventus: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Fiorentinavs
JuventusThe model puts Juventus at 44%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours Fiorentina (7-4-4).
- −Fiorentina creates more chances (20 vs 17 shots per game).
- +Juventus controls more of the ball (47% vs 63%).
- +Fiorentina are dealing with notable absentees.
- −Juventus are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Juventus will be without Gonzalez Ni., Thuram, Lokatelli, Grabara, Yildiz, Celik, Conceicao F., McKennie.
- Juventus average 63% possession.
- Fiorentina take 20 shots per game.
- The market leans toward Juventus.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12 | 14 | 8 | 3 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 13 | 8 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Fiorentina at 31%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Juventus at 44%. The model sees this as a close contest.
Fiorentina have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Juventus have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Juventus will be without Gonzalez Ni., Thuram, Lokatelli, Grabara, Yildiz, Celik, Conceicao F., McKennie. Fiorentina will be without Atta, Parisi, Pongracic, Ranieri L..
Fiorentina take 20 shots per game. Juventus take 17 shots per game. Juventus average 63% possession. Fiorentina average 47% possession.
The model gives 43% for both teams to score. The model gives 36% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Fiorentina or Juventus?
Our model rates Juventus as the most likely outcome at 44% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Fiorentina vs Juventus?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 7 Fiorentina wins, 4 draws, 4 Juventus wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
Match statistics
Fiorentina
- 3Dragusin R.
- 4Brescianini
- 17Neto Lopes
- 20Jimenez
- 25Njie
- 27N'Dour
- 30Mastantuono
- 32Pellegrino
- 33Santos
- 43de Gea
- 44Fagioli
- Atta (2)
- Parisi (2)
- Pongracic (3)
- Ranieri L. (3)
Juventus
- 3Bremer
- 8Koopmeiners
- 9Kolo-Muani
- 12Luiz Dug.
- 15Kalulu Kyatengwa
- 17Alajbegovic
- 22McKennie
- 25Vicario
- 26Lucumi J.
- 27Woltemade N.
- 32Cabal J.D.
- Gonzalez Ni. (2)
- Thuram (2)
- Lokatelli (2)
- Grabara (2)
- Yildiz (2)
- Celik (2)
- Conceicao F. (2)
- McKennie (3)
League table
Italy. Serie A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lazio | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 24:8 | 28 |
| 2 |  Roma | 11 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 31:10 | 27 |
| 3 |  Internazionale Milano | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 26:13 | 25 |
| 4 |  Como | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 18:8 | 23 |
| 5 |  Milan | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 21:12 | 21 |
| 6 |  Frosinone Calcio | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 24:15 | 20 |
| 7 | Juventus | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 13:10 | 17 |
| 8 |  Bologna 1909 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 16:14 | 17 |
| 9 |  Cagliari Calcio | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 10:15 | 16 |
| 10 |  Napoli | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 17:13 | 14 |
| 11 |  Torino | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 15:17 | 14 |
| 12 |  Genoa | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 10:14 | 13 |
| 13 |  Atalanta | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 16:20 | 11 |
| 14 |  Lecce | 11 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 12:22 | 10 |
| 15 | Fiorentina | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 15:23 | 8 |
| 16 |  Parma | 11 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 9:17 | 8 |
| 17 |  Sassuolo Calcio | 11 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 16:29 | 8 |
| 18 |  Monza 1912 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 17:24 | 7 |
| 19 |  Unione Venezia | 11 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 8:21 | 6 |
| 20 |  Udinese Calcio | 11 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 12:25 | 5 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.