1. Magdeburg vs St. Pauli: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
1. Magdeburgvs
St. PauliThe model puts 1. Magdeburg at 42%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours St. Pauli (1-2-6).
- +1. Magdeburg score more per game (3.0 at home vs 1.0 away).
- +1. Magdeburg creates more chances (15 vs 12 shots per game).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- 1. Magdeburg average 3 goals per game this season.
- St. Pauli average 1 goals per game this season.
- St. Pauli have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings.
- 1. Magdeburg have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- St. Pauli have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
1. Magdeburg average 3 goals per game this season. St. Pauli average 1 goals per game this season. 1. Magdeburg take 15 shots per game. St. Pauli take 12 shots per game.
St. Pauli have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. 1. Magdeburg have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
1. Magdeburg have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. St. Pauli have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 71% for over 2.5 goals. The model gives 70% for both teams to score. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, 1. Magdeburg or St. Pauli?
Our model rates 1. Magdeburg as the most likely outcome at 42% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for 1. Magdeburg vs St. Pauli?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 9 meetings: 1 1. Magdeburg wins, 2 draws, 6 St. Pauli wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
Match statistics
1. Magdeburg
- 1Rainmann
- 3Гарсия Макналти
- 5Muller Tobi.
- 8Iyoha
- 17Nollenberger
- 21Michel
- 22Zukowski M.
- 23Atik Bar.
- 26Musel
- 28Nadjombe
- 38Hyrylainen
St. Pauli
- 1Voll
- 4Nemeth D.
- 7Niang
- 8Smith E.
- 9Ceesay
- 11Pyrka
- 16Fujita Jo.
- 20Rasmussen Mat.
- 21Ritzka
- 23Oppie
- 24Metcalfe C.
League table
Germany. 2. Bundesliga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Hertha BSC | 11 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 25:9 | 31 |
| 2 |  Nurnberg | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 26:13 | 24 |
| 3 |  1. Kaiserslautern | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 10:7 | 21 |
| 4 |  VfL Wolfsburg | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 26:16 | 19 |
| 5 | 1. Magdeburg | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 21:13 | 17 |
| 6 |  Arminia Bielefeld | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 18:16 | 17 |
| 7 |  1. Heidenheim | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 17:18 | 15 |
| 8 | St. Pauli | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 12:12 | 12 |
| 9 |  Greuther Furth | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 13:19 | 12 |
| 10 |  Energie Cottbus | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 18:20 | 11 |
| 11 |  Eintracht Braunschweig | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 16:18 | 11 |
| 12 |  VfL Bochum | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 8:11 | 11 |
| 13 |  VfL Osnabruck | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 14:18 | 11 |
| 14 |  Dynamo Dresden | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 15:20 | 11 |
| 15 |  Hannover 96 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 10:16 | 11 |
| 16 |  Karlsruher | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 13:21 | 11 |
| 17 |  Darmstadt 98 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 9:21 | 9 |
| 18 |  Holstein | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 11:14 | 8 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.