Bayern Munich vs 1. Koln: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Bayern Munichvs
1. KolnThe model puts Bayern Munich at 90%. The model leans toward Bayern Munich. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours Bayern Munich (13-1-1).
- +Recent form favours Bayern Munich.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Bayern Munich have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- 1. Koln have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Bayern Munich have won 13 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Bayern Munich is priced at 1.064.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | 2 | |||||
| 2 | 6 | 2 | ||||
| 3 | 10 | 3 | ||||
| 4 | 13 | 4 | ||||
| 5 | 13 | 4 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Bayern Munich at 90%. The model puts the draw at 7%. The model puts 1. Koln at 3%. The model's most likely scoreline is 5-0.
The market leans toward Bayern Munich. Bayern Munich is priced at 1.064. The draw is priced at 13. 1. Koln is priced at 26.
Bayern Munich have won 13 of the head-to-head meetings. 1. Koln have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Bayern Munich have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Bayern Munich are on 2 wins in a row. 1. Koln have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Bayern Munich average 5 goals per game this season. Bayern Munich average 59% possession. 1. Koln average 1 goals per game this season. 1. Koln average 42% possession.
The model gives 28% for both teams to score. The model gives 90% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Bayern Munich or 1. Koln?
Our model rates Bayern Munich as the most likely outcome at 90% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Bayern Munich vs 1. Koln?
A scoreline around 5-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 13 Bayern Munich wins, 1 draws, 1 1. Koln wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
Germany. Bundesliga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 29:9 | 21 |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 16:7 | 21 |
| 3 |  RasenBallsport Leipzig | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 27:13 | 18 |
| 4 |  Freiburg | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 18:10 | 16 |
| 5 |  Werder Bremen | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 17:15 | 15 |
| 6 |  Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 18:16 | 13 |
| 7 |  Elversberg | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 17:18 | 13 |
| 8 |  VfB Stuttgart | 9 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 15:15 | 12 |
| 9 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15:20 | 12 |
| 10 |  Hamburger | 9 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 10:20 | 12 |
| 11 |  1. FSV Mainz 05 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 18:19 | 10 |
| 12 |  Paderborn 07 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 8:11 | 10 |
| 13 |  Augsburg | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 20:20 | 9 |
| 14 |  TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 14:16 | 9 |
| 15 | 1. Koln | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9:12 | 9 |
| 16 |  Union Berlin | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7:19 | 7 |
| 17 |  Schalke 04 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 4:9 | 6 |
| 18 |  Borussia Monchengladbach | 9 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 12:25 | 4 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.