Borussia Monchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Borussia Monchengladbachvs
Borussia DortmundThe model puts Borussia Dortmund at 61%. The model leans toward Borussia Dortmund. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Borussia Dortmund.
- +The head-to-head record favours Borussia Dortmund (4-1-10).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Borussia Monchengladbach have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Borussia Dortmund have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Borussia Monchengladbach have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Borussia Dortmund is priced at 1.635.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | |
| 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 4 |
| 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 3 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Borussia Monchengladbach at 20%. The model puts the draw at 20%. The model puts Borussia Dortmund at 61%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-3.
The market leans toward Borussia Dortmund. Borussia Monchengladbach is priced at 4.6. The draw is priced at 4.46. Borussia Dortmund is priced at 1.635.
Borussia Monchengladbach have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Borussia Dortmund have won 10 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Borussia Monchengladbach have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Borussia Dortmund have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Borussia Dortmund are on 2 wins in a row.
Borussia Monchengladbach average 3 goals per game this season. Borussia Monchengladbach average 51% possession. Borussia Dortmund average 3 goals per game this season. Borussia Dortmund average 40% possession.
The model gives 77% for both teams to score. The model gives 88% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Borussia Monchengladbach or Borussia Dortmund?
Our model rates Borussia Dortmund as the most likely outcome at 61% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Borussia Monchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund?
A scoreline around 1-3 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 4 Borussia Monchengladbach wins, 1 draws, 10 Borussia Dortmund wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
Germany. Bundesliga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern Munich | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 29:9 | 21 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 16:7 | 21 |
| 3 |  RasenBallsport Leipzig | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 27:13 | 18 |
| 4 |  Freiburg | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 18:10 | 16 |
| 5 |  Werder Bremen | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 17:15 | 15 |
| 6 |  Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 18:16 | 13 |
| 7 |  Elversberg | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 17:18 | 13 |
| 8 |  VfB Stuttgart | 9 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 15:15 | 12 |
| 9 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15:20 | 12 |
| 10 |  Hamburger | 9 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 10:20 | 12 |
| 11 |  1. FSV Mainz 05 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 18:19 | 10 |
| 12 |  Paderborn 07 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 8:11 | 10 |
| 13 |  Augsburg | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 20:20 | 9 |
| 14 |  TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 14:16 | 9 |
| 15 |  1. Koln | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9:12 | 9 |
| 16 |  Union Berlin | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7:19 | 7 |
| 17 |  Schalke 04 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 4:9 | 6 |
| 18 | Borussia Monchengladbach | 9 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 12:25 | 4 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.