Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Paderborn 07: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Bayer 04 Leverkusenvs
Paderborn 07The model puts Bayer 04 Leverkusen at 72%. The model leans toward Bayer 04 Leverkusen. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours Paderborn 07 (2-1-7).
- −Recent form favours Paderborn 07.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Paderborn 07 have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen is priced at 1.23.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| 1 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 11 | 8 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 11 | 8 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 8 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 5 | 4 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Bayer 04 Leverkusen at 72%. The model puts the draw at 13%. The model puts Paderborn 07 at 15%. The model's most likely scoreline is 3-0.
The market leans toward Bayer 04 Leverkusen. Bayer 04 Leverkusen is priced at 1.23. The draw is priced at 6.85. Paderborn 07 is priced at 10.5.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Paderborn 07 have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Paderborn 07 have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Paderborn 07 are on 2 wins in a row.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen average 4 goals per game this season. Bayer 04 Leverkusen average 64% possession. Paderborn 07 average 0 goals per game this season. Paderborn 07 average 47% possession.
The model gives 50% for both teams to score. The model gives 72% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Bayer 04 Leverkusen or Paderborn 07?
Our model rates Bayer 04 Leverkusen as the most likely outcome at 72% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Paderborn 07?
A scoreline around 3-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 10 meetings: 2 Bayer 04 Leverkusen wins, 1 draws, 7 Paderborn 07 wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
Germany. Bundesliga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern Munich | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 29:9 | 21 |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 16:7 | 21 |
| 3 |  RasenBallsport Leipzig | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 27:13 | 18 |
| 4 |  Freiburg | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 18:10 | 16 |
| 5 |  Werder Bremen | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 17:15 | 15 |
| 6 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 18:16 | 13 |
| 7 |  Elversberg | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 17:18 | 13 |
| 8 |  VfB Stuttgart | 9 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 15:15 | 12 |
| 9 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15:20 | 12 |
| 10 |  Hamburger | 9 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 10:20 | 12 |
| 11 |  1. FSV Mainz 05 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 18:19 | 10 |
| 12 | Paderborn 07 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 8:11 | 10 |
| 13 |  Augsburg | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 20:20 | 9 |
| 14 |  TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 14:16 | 9 |
| 15 |  1. Koln | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9:12 | 9 |
| 16 |  Union Berlin | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7:19 | 7 |
| 17 |  Schalke 04 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 4:9 | 6 |
| 18 |  Borussia Monchengladbach | 9 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 12:25 | 4 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.