Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal: Team Comparison
Atletico MadridvsVillarreal 
Comparing Atletico Madrid and Villarreal across the metrics that matter, the model leans toward Atletico Madrid — a 51% win probability once the bookmaker margin is stripped out. The draw sits at 23%. Below, the head-to-head numbers show where that edge comes from.
The detail backs this up: Atletico Madrid project for more goals (1.70 xG), Villarreal have the better head-to-head record. Read together, these are the factors separating the two sides — not a single number but the weight of several pointing the same way.
| Atletico Madrid | Metric | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|
| 57 | Strength rating | 41 |
| 51% | Win probability | 26% |
| W L L L W | Recent form | L W L W L |
| 2 | Head-to-head wins | 6 |
| 1.70 | Expected goals | 0.93 |
Comparison based on odds, recent form and head-to-head data. For information only — not betting advice. 18+.
Who is more likely to win, Atletico Madrid or Villarreal?
The model favours Atletico Madrid at 51%, with the draw at 23%.