Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Atletico Madridvs
VillarrealThe model puts Atletico Madrid at 51%. The model leans toward Atletico Madrid. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Atletico Madrid.
- −The head-to-head record favours Villarreal (2-7-6).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Atletico Madrid have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Villarreal have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Atletico Madrid have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Atletico Madrid is priced at 1.89.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Atletico Madrid at 51%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Villarreal at 26%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Atletico Madrid. Atletico Madrid is priced at 1.89. The draw is priced at 3.86. Villarreal is priced at 3.76.
Atletico Madrid have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Villarreal have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 7 of their head-to-head meetings.
Atletico Madrid have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Villarreal have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 50% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Atletico Madrid or Villarreal?
Our model rates Atletico Madrid as the most likely outcome at 51% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 2 Atletico Madrid wins, 7 draws, 6 Villarreal wins.
League table
Spain. La Liga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Real Sociedad | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 2 |  Elche | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 3 |  Deportivo Alaves | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 4 |  Celta | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 5 |  Malaga | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 6 |  Rayo Vallecano | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 7 |  Real Madrid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 8 | Villarreal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 9 |  Barcelona | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 10 | Atletico Madrid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 11 |  Sevilla | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 12 |  Racing de Santander | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 13 |  Deportivo de La Coruna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 14 |  Valencia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 15 |  Athletic Bilbao | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 16 |  Espanyol | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 17 |  Real Betis | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 18 |  Getafe | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 19 |  Osasuna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 20 |  Levante UD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.