Real Madrid vs Villarreal: Team Comparison
Real MadridvsVillarreal 
Comparing Real Madrid and Villarreal across the metrics that matter, the model leans toward Real Madrid — a 71% win probability once the bookmaker margin is stripped out. The draw sits at 15%. Below, the head-to-head numbers show where that edge comes from.
The detail backs this up: Real Madrid carry the stronger recent form, Real Madrid project for more goals (1.90 xG), Villarreal have the better head-to-head record. Read together, these are the factors separating the two sides — not a single number but the weight of several pointing the same way.
| Real Madrid | Metric | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|
| 67 | Strength rating | 33 |
| 71% | Win probability | 14% |
| L W W L W | Recent form | L W L L L |
| 2 | Head-to-head wins | 8 |
| 1.90 | Expected goals | 0.47 |
Comparison based on odds, recent form and head-to-head data. For information only — not betting advice. 18+.
Who is more likely to win, Real Madrid or Villarreal?
The model favours Real Madrid at 71%, with the draw at 15%.