Real Madrid vs Villarreal: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Real Madridvs
VillarrealThe model puts Real Madrid at 71%. The model leans toward Real Madrid. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Real Madrid.
- −The head-to-head record favours Villarreal (2-5-8).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Real Madrid have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Villarreal have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Real Madrid have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Real Madrid is priced at 1.315.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 18 | 8 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 17 | 8 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 11 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 5 | 2 | ||||
| 5 | 2 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Real Madrid at 71%. The model puts the draw at 15%. The model puts Villarreal at 14%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Real Madrid. Real Madrid is priced at 1.315. The draw is priced at 5.8. Villarreal is priced at 8.1.
Real Madrid have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Villarreal have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 5 of their head-to-head meetings.
Real Madrid have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Villarreal have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Villarreal average 2 goals per game this season. Villarreal average 59% possession.
The model gives 32% for both teams to score. The model gives 42% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Real Madrid or Villarreal?
Our model rates Real Madrid as the most likely outcome at 71% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Real Madrid vs Villarreal?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 2 Real Madrid wins, 5 draws, 8 Villarreal wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
League table
Spain. La Liga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 31:7 | 21 |
| 2 |  Atletico Madrid | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16:7 | 16 |
| 3 |  Real Betis | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 9:7 | 16 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 18:8 | 15 |
| 5 |  Sevilla | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10:9 | 13 |
| 6 |  Deportivo Alaves | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11:6 | 11 |
| 7 |  Deportivo de A Coruna | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 10:8 | 10 |
| 8 |  Real Sociedad | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9:13 | 10 |
| 9 | Villarreal | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 13:12 | 8 |
| 10 |  Athletic Bilbao | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7:6 | 8 |
| 11 |  Getafe | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4:7 | 8 |
| 12 |  Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11:16 | 8 |
| 13 |  Osasuna | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 6:13 | 8 |
| 14 |  Celta | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8:6 | 7 |
| 15 |  Espanyol | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10:10 | 7 |
| 16 |  Racing de Santander | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 11:21 | 7 |
| 17 |  Levante UD | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 8:12 | 5 |
| 18 |  Elche | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 11:17 | 5 |
| 19 |  Valencia | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 4:13 | 4 |
| 20 |  Malaga | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 3:12 | 3 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.