Newcastle United vs Arsenal: Team Comparison
Newcastle UnitedvsArsenal 
Comparing Newcastle United and Arsenal across the metrics that matter, the model leans toward Arsenal — a 59% win probability once the bookmaker margin is stripped out. The draw sits at 20%. Below, the head-to-head numbers show where that edge comes from.
The detail backs this up: Arsenal carry the stronger recent form, Arsenal project for more goals (1.40 xG), Newcastle United have the better head-to-head record. Read together, these are the factors separating the two sides — not a single number but the weight of several pointing the same way.
| Newcastle United | Metric | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| 42 | Strength rating | 68 |
| 21% | Win probability | 59% |
| L W W L L | Recent form | D W L W W |
| 9 | Head-to-head wins | 5 |
| 0.71 | Expected goals | 1.40 |
Comparison based on odds, recent form and head-to-head data. For information only — not betting advice. 18+.
Who is more likely to win, Newcastle United or Arsenal?
The model favours Arsenal at 59%, with the draw at 20%.