Newcastle United vs Arsenal: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Newcastle Unitedvs
ArsenalThe model puts Arsenal at 59%. The model leans toward Arsenal. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Arsenal.
- −The head-to-head record favours Newcastle United (9-1-5).
- −Newcastle United creates more chances (13 vs 10 shots per game).
- +Arsenal controls more of the ball (51% vs 59%).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Newcastle United have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Arsenal have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Newcastle United have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Arsenal is priced at 1.575.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12 | 17 | 12 | 6 | 2 | |
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Newcastle United at 21%. The model puts the draw at 20%. The model puts Arsenal at 59%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Arsenal. Newcastle United is priced at 5.45. The draw is priced at 4.24. Arsenal is priced at 1.575.
Newcastle United have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings. Arsenal have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Newcastle United have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Arsenal have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
Newcastle United average 1 goals per game this season. Newcastle United average 51% possession. Arsenal average 1 goals per game this season. Arsenal average 59% possession.
The model gives 38% for both teams to score. The model gives 35% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Newcastle United or Arsenal?
Our model rates Arsenal as the most likely outcome at 59% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Newcastle United vs Arsenal?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 9 Newcastle United wins, 1 draws, 5 Arsenal wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
League table
England. Premier League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 15:5 | 27 |
| 2 |  Manchester City | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 21:13 | 21 |
| 3 |  Brighton & Hove Albion | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 24:7 | 19 |
| 4 |  Chelsea | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 19:15 | 16 |
| 5 |  Everton | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 12:10 | 16 |
| 6 |  Liverpool | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 11:9 | 15 |
| 7 |  Brentford | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 16:9 | 14 |
| 8 |  Leeds United | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 10:8 | 14 |
| 9 |  Bournemouth | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 14:13 | 12 |
| 10 |  Tottenham Hotspur | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 10:11 | 12 |
| 11 | Newcastle United | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13:16 | 12 |
| 12 |  Aston Villa | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 10:13 | 12 |
| 13 |  Hull City | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 11:11 | 11 |
| 14 |  Ipswich Town | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 14:18 | 11 |
| 15 |  Fulham | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10:12 | 10 |
| 16 |  Nottingham Forest | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 9:13 | 9 |
| 17 |  Coventry City | 10 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 10:19 | 9 |
| 18 |  Manchester United | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 10:15 | 7 |
| 19 |  Crystal Palace | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 9:21 | 7 |
| 20 |  Sunderland | 9 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 7:17 | 5 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.