World Cup 2026 Odds Movement Tracker
How the betting market re-priced every World Cup match between the opening line and kick-off — measured from our own odds snapshots, recorded every 30 minutes since the tournament began on 11 June 2026. The shift is the change in de-margined home-win probability from open to close.
Biggest line movers
Ranked by how far the market moved from the opening price to the last price before kick-off. Odds shown as home / draw / away (decimal). “pp” = percentage points of implied probability.
| # | Match | Opening | Closing | Shift |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Colombia v Ghana04 Jul | 2.02 / 3.27 / 4.67 | 1.49 / 4.55 / 8.05 | 17.4 pp → Colombia |
| 02 | DR Congo v Uzbekistan27 Jun | 2.39 / 3.19 / 3.40 | 1.75 / 3.92 / 5.29 | 15.6 pp → DR Congo |
| 03 | USA v Bosnia and Herzegovina02 Jul | 1.62 / 4.10 / 5.45 | 1.36 / 5.55 / 9.80 | 13.1 pp → USA |
| 04 | Bosnia and Herzegovina v Qatar24 Jun | 1.69 / 5.69 / 3.85 | 1.43 / 5.30 / 7.95 | 11.5 pp → Bosnia and Herzegovina |
| 05 | Senegal v Iraq26 Jun | 1.43 / 8.45 / 4.75 | 1.24 / 7.27 / 13.60 | 11.2 pp → Senegal |
| 06 | Tunisia v Netherlands25 Jun | 6.79 / 1.54 / 4.39 | 30.00 / 12.00 / 1.11 | 11.1 pp → Netherlands |
| 07 | Switzerland v Algeria03 Jul | 1.70 / 4.11 / 5.48 | 2.05 / 3.31 / 4.44 | 10.0 pp → Draw |
| 08 | France v England18 Jul | 2.30 / 3.36 / 3.18 | 1.93 / 4.05 / 3.98 | 9.4 pp → France |
| 09 | Paraguay v Australia26 Jun | 2.25 / 3.60 / 3.30 | 2.82 / 2.25 / 4.64 | 8.4 pp → Draw |
| 10 | Norway v France26 Jun | 4.53 / 1.86 / 3.74 | 7.48 / 5.71 / 1.42 | 8.4 pp → France |
| 11 | France v Sweden30 Jun | 1.46 / 4.60 / 7.40 | 1.32 / 6.36 / 9.70 | 8.3 pp → France |
| 12 | Argentina v Austria22 Jun | 1.69 / 5.69 / 3.88 | 1.50 / 4.54 / 7.85 | 8.0 pp → Argentina |
| 13 | Portugal v Croatia02 Jul | 2.03 / 3.46 / 4.27 | 1.76 / 3.73 / 5.60 | 7.6 pp → Portugal |
| 14 | England v Ghana23 Jun | 1.31 / 11.60 / 5.70 | 1.20 / 7.85 / 17.50 | 7.3 pp → England |
| 15 | Turkey v USA26 Jun | 2.70 / 2.67 / 3.58 | 3.40 / 3.97 / 2.13 | 7.2 pp → USA |
| 16 | Scotland v Morocco19 Jun | 4.16 / 2.07 / 3.31 | 5.91 / 3.78 / 1.72 | 6.8 pp → Morocco |
| 17 | Switzerland v Canada24 Jun | 2.19 / 3.62 / 3.42 | 2.61 / 3.05 / 3.29 | 6.8 pp → Draw |
| 18 | Argentina v Algeria17 Jun | 1.43 / 9.10 / 4.57 | 1.60 / 4.14 / 6.77 | 6.3 pp → Draw |
| 19 | Tunisia v Japan21 Jun | 5.53 / 1.75 / 3.63 | 8.65 / 4.50 / 1.48 | 6.3 pp → Japan |
| 20 | Egypt v Iran27 Jun | 2.31 / 3.68 / 3.12 | 2.74 / 2.75 / 3.48 | 6.3 pp → Draw |
Which way the market drifted
Across 111 fully-tracked matches, the direction the market leaned between open and close:
How this is measured
LiveGoalz records 1X2 odds for every World Cup fixture every 30 minutes. For each match we keep the first price we saw (“opening”) and the last price before kick-off (“closing”). We strip the bookmaker margin from both and compare the implied probabilities; the headline shift is the change in home-win probability. Matches without complete pre-match coverage are excluded rather than estimated. Data is ours and updates through the tournament.
Match predictions → · World Cup 2026 hub → · Live odds comparison →