Italy vs Belgium: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Italyvs
BelgiumThe model puts Italy at 37%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Belgium.
- −The head-to-head record favours Belgium (2-1-6).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Italy have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Belgium have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Italy have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Italy is priced at 2.368.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Italy at 37%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Belgium at 37%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Italy is priced at 2.368. The draw is priced at 3.46. Belgium is priced at 2.93.
Italy have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Belgium have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Italy have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Belgium have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Belgium are on 2 wins in a row.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Italy or Belgium?
Our model rates Italy as the most likely outcome at 37% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Italy vs Belgium?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 9 meetings: 2 Italy wins, 1 draws, 6 Belgium wins.
League table
UEFA Nations League - League A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  France | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 2 |  Turkey | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 3 | Italy | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 4 | Belgium | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.