UEFA Nations League

Bulgaria vs Luxembourg: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

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Bulgariavs

Luxembourg

Our predictionBulgaria to win

Model score: Low · 29/100

Score hint: 1-0

The model puts Bulgaria at 48%. The model leans toward Bulgaria. Confidence: low.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

−The head-to-head record favours Luxembourg (0-3-3).

Win probabilities

1 · Bulgaria48%

Draw28%

2 · Luxembourg24%

1 · BulgariaDraw2 · Luxembourg

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

BTTSYes1.99+3.4%

1X2Luxembourg4.38+2.1%

1X2Draw3.32-0.8%

1X2Bulgaria1.90-1.3%

BTTSNo1.75-3.4%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Recent form

BulgariaWWLWL

LuxembourgDWWWL

Team strength rating

Bulgaria

Luxembourg

Most likely scorelines

1-012.0%

1-111.8%

2-09.8%

2-19.6%

0-07.4%

0-17.3%

Expected goals

1.62Bulgaria

0.98Luxembourg

Over 2.5 goals48%

Both teams to score50%

Match DNA

Bulgaria Luxembourg

Key points

Bulgaria have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
Luxembourg have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
Bulgaria is priced at 1.904.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Bulgaria win1.90Fair (-1.3%)

Double chanceBulgaria or draw—Info

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2	3
0	7	7	4	1
1	12	12	6	2
2	10	10	5	2
3	5	5	3
4	2	2	1
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts Bulgaria at 48%. The model puts the draw at 28%. The model puts Luxembourg at 24%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.

The market leans toward Bulgaria. Bulgaria is priced at 1.904. The draw is priced at 3.32. Luxembourg is priced at 4.38.

Luxembourg have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.

Bulgaria have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Bulgaria are on 2 wins in a row. Luxembourg have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.

The model gives 50% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →